# wheel-v1 entry-timing research — continuous selling vs dip-gated

**RESEARCH ONLY — not wired into any live path.** Alpaca has no historical options data, so premiums here are a Black-Scholes estimate using REALIZED volatility (real stock closes) as an implied-vol proxy, not real historical option quotes. Treat this as a rough directional comparison, not a dollar-accurate forecast — same caution as every other backtest in this system (docs/METRICS.md, CLAUDE.md §7).

Params: 21d expiration, target put delta -0.3, dip gate = RSI14 < 45 AND price ≤ its 50-day MA (swing-dip-v1's own thresholds). Window: 2y.

| Symbol | Baseline cycles | Baseline premium | Baseline assignments | Gated cycles | Gated premium | Gated assignments | Days waiting for dip | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX | 22 | $3266 | 8 | 13 | $1772 | 6 | 202 | **baseline** |
| DIS | 22 | $2779 | 8 | 14 | $1751 | 6 | 186 | **baseline** |
| MARA | 22 | $1431 | 7 | 13 | $741 | 3 | 204 | **baseline** |
| SOFI | 22 | $1140 | 6 | 11 | $635 | 3 | 259 | **baseline** |
| SMCI | 22 | $4058 | 9 | 15 | $2763 | 5 | 169 | **baseline** |

**Totals: baseline $12674 vs dip-gated $7661** (baseline collected more, estimated).

Read before concluding anything: the dip-gated policy sells fewer puts (it sits out entirely while a name isn't already dipping — see "days waiting for dip"), which is the expected tradeoff dan named — fewer, better-timed entries vs continuous income. Whether that's worth it depends on whether you value premium frequency or entry quality; this comparison doesn't answer that for you, it just quantifies the tradeoff on real price history.