# T212 trailing-stop backtest: 1% trail vs actual — 2026-07-19

Real Trading 212 trades closed in the last 30 days (source: http://localhost:3000/api/orders/round-trips, the same data backing yahoo-screener's /owned/orders page). Each trade re-simulated from its actual buy price using Alpaca's own 1-min bars, walking forward up to 45 days. Read-only — no orders placed.

> ⚠️ **Caveats**: GBP P&L for the simulated leg is approximate (`costBasisGbp × simPct/100`) and ignores FX drift between the real and simulated exit dates. "NO (still open at window end)" means the 3% trail never triggered within 45 days — the comparison for that row uses the window's last close, not a real exit, and likely understates what trailing would have captured on a still-running winner. LSE-listed and unresolvable tickers are excluded, not guessed at.

## Summary

- Actual total P&L: **£404.60**
- 3% trailing-stop total: **£148.23**
- Difference: **£-256.37** (trailing would have made LESS)
- 5 trades better with trailing, 40 worse, 0 ~same
- 45 trades simulated, 4 excluded

## Per-trade detail

| Ticker | Buy date | Hold (sim) | Actual % | Actual £ | 3%-trail % | 3%-trail £ | Δ £ | Triggered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 2025-01-06 | 0.8d | 30.00% | £40.64 | 0.28% | £0.54 | £-40.10 | yes |
| TSLA | 2025-02-03 | 0.0d | 15.53% | £45.45 | 1.76% | £10.61 | £-34.84 | yes |
| AMOD | 2025-10-09 | 0.9d | 263.64% | £7.02 | 3752.00% | £101.06 | £94.04 | yes |
| ABT | 2026-04-17 | 3.0d | 5.57% | £13.39 | -0.50% | £-1.08 | £-14.46 | yes |
| ISRG | 2026-05-29 | 0.2d | 4.45% | £13.72 | -0.51% | £-1.63 | £-15.35 | yes |
| ISRG | 2026-06-03 | 0.7d | 7.14% | £10.81 | 1.33% | £2.03 | £-8.78 | yes |
| MSFT | 2026-06-12 | 2.9d | 4.23% | £10.06 | 1.56% | £4.53 | £-5.53 | yes |
| GILD | 2026-06-12 | 2.9d | 5.16% | £4.89 | -0.01% | £-0.01 | £-4.89 | yes |
| GILD | 2026-06-12 | 2.9d | 3.56% | £3.25 | -0.01% | £-0.01 | £-3.25 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-06-15 | 0.2d | 4.31% | £4.40 | -1.00% | £-0.98 | £-5.38 | yes |
| MSFT | 2026-06-17 | 0.6d | 4.95% | £4.00 | -1.00% | £-1.44 | £-5.44 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-17 | 0.1d | 4.73% | £3.61 | 1.32% | £1.19 | £-2.42 | yes |
| CRM | 2026-06-17 | 0.6d | 8.71% | £4.48 | -1.00% | £-0.59 | £-5.07 | yes |
| ZS | 2026-06-17 | 0.7d | 4.57% | £9.69 | -0.90% | £-1.69 | £-11.38 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-18 | 0.0d | 2.06% | £2.31 | -1.00% | £-3.68 | £-5.99 | yes |
| MSFT | 2026-06-22 | 0.0d | 4.92% | £7.10 | 0.54% | £1.08 | £-6.02 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-24 | 0.3d | 5.26% | £6.88 | 2.68% | £4.02 | £-2.86 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-25 | 0.3d | 6.66% | £7.94 | -1.00% | £-1.78 | £-9.71 | yes |
| NFLX | 2026-06-29 | 0.0d | 5.08% | £3.46 | 0.27% | £0.24 | £-3.22 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-29 | 0.0d | 4.59% | £4.16 | -0.49% | £-0.48 | £-4.65 | yes |
| AVGO | 2026-07-01 | 0.1d | 2.97% | £4.94 | -1.00% | £-2.84 | £-7.78 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-07-01 | 0.1d | 2.92% | £9.48 | -0.64% | £-3.47 | £-12.95 | yes |
| ARM | 2026-07-01 | 0.0d | 3.60% | £6.31 | -0.18% | £-0.47 | £-6.78 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-07-07 | 0.6d | 5.71% | £7.27 | 1.00% | £1.47 | £-5.80 | yes |
| ADI | 2026-07-07 | 0.1d | 4.44% | £11.37 | -1.00% | £-2.86 | £-14.23 | yes |
| AVGO | 2026-07-07 | 0.6d | 8.08% | £20.62 | 2.41% | £6.67 | £-13.95 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-07-07 | 0.6d | 4.16% | £15.27 | 1.00% | £4.41 | £-10.86 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-07-08 | 0.0d | 4.71% | £7.91 | -0.20% | £-0.39 | £-8.30 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-07-08 | 0.2d | 4.49% | £7.36 | 2.16% | £4.16 | £-3.20 | yes |
| COIN | 2026-07-08 | 0.7d | 4.17% | £4.28 | -1.00% | £-1.19 | £-5.47 | yes |
| SNDK1 | 2026-07-08 | 0.0d | 15.90% | £18.97 | -0.19% | £-0.23 | £-19.20 | yes |
| ADI | 2026-07-08 | 0.3d | 4.06% | £10.04 | -1.00% | £-2.86 | £-12.90 | yes |
| MU | 2026-07-08 | 0.0d | 4.35% | £5.27 | -0.84% | £-1.19 | £-6.46 | yes |
| INTC | 2026-07-08 | 0.1d | 4.71% | £9.90 | 0.32% | £0.79 | £-9.11 | yes |
| INTC | 2026-07-08 | 0.3d | 2.94% | £3.74 | -0.04% | £-0.06 | £-3.79 | yes |
| MU | 2026-07-09 | 0.5d | -0.90% | £-3.15 | 1.25% | £1.97 | £5.12 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-07-09 | 0.9d | 4.96% | £13.44 | 1.23% | £3.67 | £-9.77 | yes |
| TRP | 2026-07-10 | 3.0d | 5.07% | £4.63 | 0.32% | £0.32 | £-4.31 | yes |
| INTC | 2026-07-10 | 0.1d | 4.63% | £7.05 | 0.07% | £0.12 | £-6.93 | yes |
| FLNG | 2026-07-10 | 3.0d | 4.17% | £4.43 | 1.49% | £1.66 | £-2.77 | yes |
| FLNG | 2026-07-10 | 3.0d | 3.95% | £7.89 | 1.51% | £3.20 | £-4.68 | yes |
| FLNG | 2026-07-10 | 3.0d | -0.34% | £-1.43 | 1.53% | £3.40 | £4.82 | yes |
| COIN | 2026-07-10 | 0.3d | 2.95% | £6.54 | 3.71% | £8.88 | £2.34 | yes |
| MU | 2026-07-17 | 0.0d | 4.72% | £5.89 | 0.07% | £0.09 | £-5.80 | yes |
| SNDK1 | 2026-07-17 | 0.0d | 5.01% | £9.33 | 5.53% | £11.03 | £1.70 | yes |

## Excluded (4)

- **SMSN.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **AZN.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **AZN.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **MKS.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)