# T212 trailing-stop backtest: 3% trail vs actual — 2026-07-18

Real Trading 212 trades closed in the last 30 days (source: http://localhost:3000/api/orders/round-trips, the same data backing yahoo-screener's /owned/orders page). Each trade re-simulated from its actual buy price using Alpaca's own 1-min bars, walking forward up to 45 days. Read-only — no orders placed.

> ⚠️ **Caveats**: GBP P&L for the simulated leg is approximate (`costBasisGbp × simPct/100`) and ignores FX drift between the real and simulated exit dates. "NO (still open at window end)" means the 3% trail never triggered within 45 days — the comparison for that row uses the window's last close, not a real exit, and likely understates what trailing would have captured on a still-running winner. LSE-listed and unresolvable tickers are excluded, not guessed at.
>
> **AMOD's +£91.95 delta is unreliable and should be discounted.** Alpaca returned only 68 one-minute bars for AMOD across the full 45-day window — an actively-traded stock would have ~17,000+. That sparse/gappy data almost certainly produced a stale-peak artifact (the simulated +3674% return), not a real achievable trail. Excluding it: **2 trades better, 43 worse**, and the true gap versus actual P&L is larger than the headline £-272.43.

## Summary

- Actual total P&L: **£404.60**
- 3% trailing-stop total: **£132.17**
- Difference: **£-272.43** (trailing would have made LESS)
- 3 trades better with trailing, 42 worse, 0 ~same
- 45 trades simulated, 4 excluded

## Per-trade detail

| Ticker | Buy date | Hold (sim) | Actual % | Actual £ | 3%-trail % | 3%-trail £ | Δ £ | Triggered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 2025-01-06 | 3.7d | 30.00% | £40.64 | -1.75% | £-3.41 | £-44.05 | yes |
| TSLA | 2025-02-03 | 1.9d | 15.53% | £45.45 | 1.49% | £8.99 | £-36.46 | yes |
| AMOD | 2025-10-09 | 0.9d | 263.64% | £7.02 | 3674.18% | £98.96 | £91.95 | yes |
| ABT | 2026-04-17 | 4.0d | 5.57% | £13.39 | -2.38% | £-5.10 | £-18.48 | yes |
| ISRG | 2026-05-29 | 3.4d | 4.45% | £13.72 | -2.52% | £-7.99 | £-21.71 | yes |
| ISRG | 2026-06-03 | 6.9d | 7.14% | £10.81 | 2.28% | £3.47 | £-7.34 | yes |
| MSFT | 2026-06-12 | 4.9d | 4.23% | £10.06 | 0.54% | £1.57 | £-8.49 | yes |
| GILD | 2026-06-12 | 5.2d | 5.16% | £4.89 | -0.20% | £-0.19 | £-5.07 | yes |
| GILD | 2026-06-12 | 5.2d | 3.56% | £3.25 | -0.20% | £-0.19 | £-3.43 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-06-15 | 1.2d | 4.31% | £4.40 | -0.35% | £-0.35 | £-4.75 | yes |
| MSFT | 2026-06-17 | 4.8d | 4.95% | £4.00 | -2.87% | £-4.12 | £-8.12 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-17 | 0.3d | 4.73% | £3.61 | -0.73% | £-0.65 | £-4.26 | yes |
| CRM | 2026-06-17 | 0.6d | 8.71% | £4.48 | -3.00% | £-1.76 | £-6.25 | yes |
| ZS | 2026-06-17 | 0.7d | 4.57% | £9.69 | -2.90% | £-5.45 | £-15.14 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-18 | 3.9d | 2.06% | £2.31 | -3.00% | £-11.05 | £-13.35 | yes |
| MSFT | 2026-06-22 | 0.1d | 4.92% | £7.10 | -1.49% | £-2.95 | £-10.06 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-24 | 0.4d | 5.26% | £6.88 | 0.61% | £0.91 | £-5.97 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-25 | 0.3d | 6.66% | £7.94 | -3.00% | £-5.33 | £-13.26 | yes |
| NFLX | 2026-06-29 | 0.3d | 5.08% | £3.46 | -0.64% | £-0.57 | £-4.03 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-29 | 1.0d | 4.59% | £4.16 | 1.76% | £1.72 | £-2.44 | yes |
| AVGO | 2026-07-01 | 1.1d | 2.97% | £4.94 | -3.00% | £-8.52 | £-13.46 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-07-01 | 7.1d | 2.92% | £9.48 | 0.99% | £5.39 | £-4.09 | yes |
| ARM | 2026-07-01 | 1.0d | 3.60% | £6.31 | -0.76% | £-1.94 | £-8.25 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-07-07 | 1.7d | 5.71% | £7.27 | 2.05% | £3.01 | £-4.26 | yes |
| ADI | 2026-07-07 | 5.9d | 4.44% | £11.37 | 1.41% | £4.04 | £-7.33 | yes |
| AVGO | 2026-07-07 | 1.7d | 8.08% | £20.62 | 6.10% | £16.89 | £-3.73 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-07-07 | 1.7d | 4.16% | £15.27 | 2.05% | £9.02 | £-6.25 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-07-08 | 1.0d | 4.71% | £7.91 | 0.32% | £0.61 | £-7.30 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-07-08 | 0.9d | 4.49% | £7.36 | 0.11% | £0.21 | £-7.16 | yes |
| COIN | 2026-07-08 | 1.7d | 4.17% | £4.28 | 2.01% | £2.39 | £-1.89 | yes |
| SNDK1 | 2026-07-08 | 0.1d | 15.90% | £18.97 | -1.36% | £-1.71 | £-20.68 | yes |
| ADI | 2026-07-08 | 5.3d | 4.06% | £10.04 | 1.32% | £3.78 | £-6.26 | yes |
| MU | 2026-07-08 | 0.0d | 4.35% | £5.27 | -2.41% | £-3.42 | £-8.69 | yes |
| INTC | 2026-07-08 | 0.2d | 4.71% | £9.90 | -1.31% | £-3.19 | £-13.08 | yes |
| INTC | 2026-07-08 | 0.3d | 2.94% | £3.74 | -1.66% | £-2.71 | £-6.45 | yes |
| MU | 2026-07-09 | 0.5d | -0.90% | £-3.15 | 0.63% | £1.00 | £4.15 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-07-09 | 4.1d | 4.96% | £13.44 | 2.29% | £6.85 | £-6.59 | yes |
| TRP | 2026-07-10 | 7.2d | 5.07% | £4.63 | 3.62% | £3.64 | £-0.99 | no (window ended) |
| INTC | 2026-07-10 | 3.1d | 4.63% | £7.05 | -1.36% | £-2.22 | £-9.27 | yes |
| FLNG | 2026-07-10 | 7.0d | 4.17% | £4.43 | 3.23% | £3.58 | £-0.85 | yes |
| FLNG | 2026-07-10 | 7.0d | 3.95% | £7.89 | 3.24% | £6.87 | £-1.02 | yes |
| FLNG | 2026-07-10 | 7.0d | -0.34% | £-1.43 | 3.26% | £7.24 | £8.67 | yes |
| COIN | 2026-07-10 | 0.3d | 2.95% | £6.54 | 1.62% | £3.87 | £-2.67 | yes |
| MU | 2026-07-17 | 0.1d | 4.72% | £5.89 | 3.13% | £4.17 | £-1.72 | yes |
| SNDK1 | 2026-07-17 | 0.1d | 5.01% | £9.33 | 3.40% | £6.78 | £-2.55 | yes |

## Excluded (4)

- **SMSN.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **AZN.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **AZN.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **MKS.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)