# T212 fixed stop-loss backtest: 3% SL vs actual — 2026-07-19

Real Trading 212 trades closed in the last 60 days (source: http://localhost:3000/api/orders/round-trips, the same data backing yahoo-screener's /owned/orders page). Each trade re-simulated from its actual buy price using Alpaca's own 1-min bars, walking forward up to 45 days. Unlike the trailing-stop backtest, this stop is FIXED at buyPrice × (1 − 3%) for the whole hold — it never ratchets up. Read-only — no orders placed.

> ⚠️ **Caveats**: GBP P&L for the simulated leg is approximate (`costBasisGbp × simPct/100`) and ignores FX drift between the real and simulated exit dates. "NO (still open at window end)" means the stop never triggered within 45 days. "Drawdown" is the lowest low touched between the real buy and real sell, as a % below the buy price — it identifies which trades actually went underwater after purchase, independent of the simulated stop. LSE-listed and unresolvable tickers are excluded, not guessed at.

## Summary — all trades

- Actual total P&L: **£1959.65**
- Fixed 3% stop-loss total: **£-187.78**
- Difference: **£-2147.43** (SL would have made LESS)
- 14 trades better with the SL, 117 worse, 0 ~same
- 131 trades simulated, 10 excluded

## Summary — 59 trades that dipped 3%+ after purchase

- Actual P&L on these: **£1306.76**
- Fixed 3% stop-loss on these: **£-304.95**
- Difference: **£-1611.71** (SL would have made LESS)

## Per-trade detail

| Ticker | Buy date | Drawdown | Actual % | Actual £ | Fixed-SL % | Fixed-SL £ | Δ £ | Triggered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 2024-12-17 | -12.43% | 18.01% | £22.61 | -3.00% | £-5.92 | £-28.53 | yes |
| TSLA | 2024-12-29 | -48.74% | 4.03% | £-11.13 | -3.00% | £-10.03 | £1.11 | yes |
| AAPL | 2025-01-06 | -9.62% | 30.00% | £40.64 | -3.00% | £-5.85 | £-46.49 | yes |
| TSM | 2025-01-21 | -33.43% | 84.31% | £120.78 | -3.00% | £-5.31 | £-126.10 | yes |
| TSLA | 2025-01-28 | -54.57% | -8.86% | £-51.06 | -3.00% | £-11.12 | £39.94 | yes |
| TSM | 2025-01-30 | -26.59% | 103.58% | £139.50 | -3.00% | £-4.77 | £-144.26 | yes |
| TSLA | 2025-02-03 | -43.07% | 15.53% | £45.45 | -3.00% | £-18.13 | £-63.58 | yes |
| TSM | 2025-02-19 | -28.34% | 109.12% | £47.28 | -3.00% | £-1.50 | £-48.77 | yes |
| GOOGL | 2025-05-07 | -3.42% | 148.69% | £167.37 | -3.00% | £-3.45 | £-170.81 | yes |
| MRVL | 2025-09-02 | -4.10% | 243.67% | £115.61 | -3.00% | £-1.42 | £-117.03 | yes |
| RKLB | 2025-10-02 | -21.75% | 191.54% | £67.86 | -3.00% | £-1.08 | £-68.94 | yes |
| RKLB | 2025-11-19 | -10.11% | 262.41% | £80.61 | -3.00% | £-0.96 | £-81.56 | yes |
| RKLB | 2025-11-24 | -1.34% | 202.49% | £120.94 | 107.81% | £66.55 | £-54.39 | no (window ended) |
| IAG | 2025-11-28 | -96.29% | 7.73% | £163.35 | -3.00% | £-1.50 | £-164.85 | yes |
| NIO | 2026-03-03 | -17.02% | 12.89% | £19.59 | -3.00% | £-4.83 | £-24.42 | yes |
| ABT | 2026-04-17 | -15.19% | 5.57% | £13.39 | -3.00% | £-6.42 | £-19.81 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-05-05 | -5.70% | 6.94% | £21.05 | -3.00% | £-8.48 | £-29.53 | yes |
| MSFT | 2026-05-06 | -1.77% | 4.87% | £2.66 | -3.00% | £-1.35 | £-4.01 | yes |
| META | 2026-05-06 | -2.71% | 3.05% | £10.81 | -3.00% | £-8.61 | £-19.42 | yes |
| MSFT | 2026-05-07 | -1.77% | 8.30% | £10.91 | -3.00% | £-3.61 | £-14.52 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-05-08 | -4.93% | 3.00% | £8.61 | -3.00% | £-5.97 | £-14.58 | yes |
| META | 2026-05-08 | -2.62% | 3.51% | £4.19 | -3.00% | £-2.69 | £-6.87 | yes |
| META | 2026-05-08 | -4.28% | 0.94% | £3.17 | -3.00% | £-5.20 | £-8.37 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-05-11 | -5.44% | 4.65% | £2.83 | -3.00% | £-1.50 | £-4.33 | yes |
| SMCI | 2026-05-11 | -13.00% | 5.11% | £7.57 | -3.00% | £-3.74 | £-11.31 | yes |
| ARM | 2026-05-12 | 0.01% | 69.22% | £2.82 | 64.98% | £2.61 | £-0.21 | no (window ended) |
| SMCI | 2026-05-12 | -9.50% | 6.26% | £3.22 | -3.00% | £-1.45 | £-4.67 | yes |
| ARM | 2026-05-12 | -1.54% | 43.52% | £9.99 | 62.79% | £14.24 | £4.25 | no (window ended) |
| SHOP | 2026-05-13 | -5.66% | 11.40% | £17.41 | -3.00% | £-4.43 | £-21.84 | yes |
| SHOP | 2026-05-13 | -7.37% | 5.42% | £8.67 | -3.00% | £-4.51 | £-13.18 | yes |
| TSLA | 2026-05-15 | -9.53% | 2.03% | £4.07 | -3.00% | £-9.77 | £-13.84 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-05-18 | -2.58% | 10.35% | £9.75 | -3.00% | £-3.03 | £-12.78 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-05-18 | -2.58% | 7.39% | £13.50 | -3.00% | £-6.06 | £-19.56 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-05-18 | -0.80% | 4.93% | £3.66 | -3.00% | £-2.99 | £-6.65 | yes |
| DELL | 2026-05-18 | -6.46% | 4.68% | £0.37 | -3.00% | £-0.29 | £-0.66 | yes |
| NET | 2026-05-18 | -1.70% | 5.11% | £14.32 | 21.70% | £65.33 | £51.01 | no (window ended) |
| SHOP | 2026-05-18 | -1.54% | 4.58% | £1.81 | 21.15% | £10.57 | £8.76 | no (window ended) |
| META | 2026-05-19 | -1.21% | 1.63% | £1.29 | -3.00% | £-4.05 | £-5.34 | yes |
| MU | 2026-05-19 | -3.08% | 2.11% | £1.89 | -3.00% | £-3.21 | £-5.10 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-05-20 | -3.13% | 10.39% | £10.11 | -3.00% | £-3.04 | £-13.14 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-05-20 | -3.13% | 4.51% | £4.19 | -3.00% | £-3.04 | £-7.22 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-05-20 | -1.89% | 5.11% | £4.46 | -3.00% | £-3.01 | £-7.47 | yes |
| SHOP | 2026-05-20 | -2.85% | 6.88% | £2.05 | 14.05% | £4.39 | £2.34 | no (window ended) |
| META | 2026-05-20 | -1.47% | 4.53% | £9.75 | -3.00% | £-6.75 | £-16.50 | yes |
| DELL | 2026-05-20 | -1.04% | 3.95% | £6.29 | 63.90% | £114.86 | £108.57 | no (window ended) |
| GLW | 2026-05-20 | -0.14% | 4.07% | £5.41 | -3.00% | £-4.02 | £-9.42 | yes |
| GLW | 2026-05-20 | -0.14% | 2.39% | £2.90 | -3.00% | £-4.02 | £-6.91 | yes |
| C | 2026-05-22 | -2.35% | 6.95% | £6.96 | 10.89% | £10.89 | £3.93 | no (window ended) |
| NVDA | 2026-05-22 | -3.81% | 4.63% | £13.23 | -3.00% | £-9.70 | £-22.93 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-05-22 | -3.54% | 3.34% | £3.10 | -3.00% | £-3.05 | £-6.15 | yes |
| META | 2026-05-22 | -0.53% | 3.51% | £7.51 | -3.00% | £-6.80 | £-14.31 | yes |
| RACE | 2026-05-26 | -1.24% | 3.17% | £6.72 | 14.22% | £31.61 | £24.89 | no (window ended) |
| MDB | 2026-05-26 | -4.80% | 4.07% | £4.47 | -3.00% | £-3.43 | £-7.90 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-05-27 | -0.16% | 5.40% | £7.96 | -3.00% | £-4.69 | £-12.65 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-05-27 | -2.61% | 10.98% | £10.75 | -3.00% | £-3.02 | £-13.77 | yes |
| GEV | 2026-05-28 | -15.24% | 8.92% | £22.63 | -3.00% | £-6.79 | £-29.41 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-05-28 | -0.80% | 3.84% | £22.81 | -3.00% | £-19.04 | £-41.85 | yes |
| COIN | 2026-05-28 | -1.97% | 7.20% | £16.77 | -3.00% | £-7.75 | £-24.52 | yes |
| RKLB | 2026-05-28 | -0.74% | 3.11% | £14.75 | -3.00% | £-16.16 | £-30.91 | yes |
| ISRG | 2026-05-29 | -6.40% | 4.45% | £13.72 | -3.00% | £-9.50 | £-23.22 | yes |
| GEV | 2026-05-29 | -14.22% | 4.63% | £18.13 | -3.00% | £-11.18 | £-29.31 | yes |
| XOM | 2026-05-29 | -1.54% | 2.74% | £2.34 | -3.00% | £-3.29 | £-5.63 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-05-29 | -2.49% | 4.88% | £6.87 | -3.00% | £-4.84 | £-11.72 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-05-29 | -1.76% | 3.70% | £14.46 | -3.00% | £-14.44 | £-28.91 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-05-29 | -1.74% | 3.51% | £4.01 | -3.00% | £-4.33 | £-8.34 | yes |
| ZS | 2026-05-29 | -0.20% | 11.05% | £1.46 | -3.00% | £-0.40 | £-1.86 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-05-29 | -1.74% | 2.85% | £3.84 | -3.00% | £-4.82 | £-8.66 | yes |
| ZS | 2026-05-29 | -0.20% | 8.09% | £8.42 | -3.00% | £-3.12 | £-11.53 | yes |
| ZS | 2026-05-29 | -0.19% | 5.99% | £6.18 | -3.00% | £-3.12 | £-9.30 | yes |
| ZS | 2026-05-29 | -0.11% | 5.36% | £5.56 | -3.00% | £-3.11 | £-8.68 | yes |
| ZS | 2026-05-29 | -0.11% | 3.88% | £3.76 | -3.00% | £-3.11 | £-6.88 | yes |
| ZS | 2026-05-29 | -1.51% | 4.26% | £6.92 | -3.00% | £-5.93 | £-12.85 | yes |
| META | 2026-06-01 | -0.65% | 4.87% | £10.17 | -3.00% | £-6.71 | £-16.87 | yes |
| META | 2026-06-01 | -0.63% | 3.40% | £6.79 | -3.00% | £-6.04 | £-12.82 | yes |
| META | 2026-06-01 | -0.63% | 3.23% | £6.33 | -3.00% | £-6.04 | £-12.36 | yes |
| INTC | 2026-06-01 | -3.59% | 5.49% | £8.23 | -3.00% | £-4.97 | £-13.20 | yes |
| COIN | 2026-06-01 | -1.06% | -1.15% | £-4.04 | -3.00% | £-8.18 | £-4.14 | yes |
| MDB | 2026-06-01 | 3.56% | 11.74% | £11.67 | -3.00% | £-2.96 | £-14.63 | yes |
| ZS | 2026-06-01 | 1.41% | 4.61% | £9.70 | -3.00% | £-6.35 | £-16.05 | yes |
| META | 2026-06-02 | -1.38% | 4.10% | £17.59 | -3.00% | £-13.50 | £-31.09 | yes |
| META | 2026-06-02 | -1.34% | 2.01% | £0.95 | -3.00% | £-1.42 | £-2.37 | yes |
| ISRG | 2026-06-03 | -2.54% | 7.14% | £10.81 | -3.00% | £-4.57 | £-15.38 | yes |
| GEV | 2026-06-03 | -10.82% | 5.21% | £7.11 | -3.00% | £-4.30 | £-11.41 | yes |
| RKLB | 2026-06-03 | -16.04% | 4.48% | £4.45 | -3.00% | £-2.96 | £-7.41 | yes |
| ISRG | 2026-06-03 | 1.27% | 5.43% | £8.00 | -3.00% | £-4.57 | £-12.57 | yes |
| ISRG | 2026-06-03 | -0.12% | 6.30% | £6.44 | -3.00% | £-3.03 | £-9.47 | yes |
| RKLB | 2026-06-05 | -13.75% | 6.46% | £5.66 | -3.00% | £-2.62 | £-8.28 | yes |
| GEV | 2026-06-09 | -6.95% | 4.51% | £5.11 | -3.00% | £-4.14 | £-9.25 | yes |
| MRVL | 2026-06-09 | -2.85% | 4.98% | £6.92 | -3.00% | £-4.52 | £-11.44 | yes |
| MSFT | 2026-06-12 | -9.90% | 4.23% | £10.06 | -3.00% | £-8.68 | £-18.74 | yes |
| GILD | 2026-06-12 | -1.71% | 5.16% | £4.89 | 7.75% | £7.21 | £2.33 | no (window ended) |
| GILD | 2026-06-12 | -1.71% | 3.56% | £3.25 | 7.75% | £7.21 | £3.97 | no (window ended) |
| AVGO | 2026-06-12 | -1.27% | 4.90% | £14.15 | -3.00% | £-8.54 | £-22.69 | yes |
| CRM | 2026-06-12 | -0.36% | 3.19% | £3.39 | -3.00% | £-3.69 | £-7.08 | yes |
| SPCX | 2026-06-12 | -1.28% | 0.72% | £0.82 | -3.00% | £-5.57 | £-6.39 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-06-15 | -19.02% | 4.31% | £4.40 | -3.00% | £-2.94 | £-7.34 | yes |
| MSFT | 2026-06-17 | -8.34% | 4.95% | £4.00 | -3.00% | £-4.31 | £-8.31 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-17 | -6.09% | 4.73% | £3.61 | -3.00% | £-2.70 | £-6.31 | yes |
| CRM | 2026-06-17 | -5.38% | 8.71% | £4.48 | -3.00% | £-1.76 | £-6.25 | yes |
| ZS | 2026-06-17 | -3.63% | 4.57% | £9.69 | -3.00% | £-5.64 | £-15.33 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-18 | -8.47% | 2.06% | £2.31 | -3.00% | £-11.05 | £-13.35 | yes |
| MSFT | 2026-06-22 | -7.04% | 4.92% | £7.10 | -3.00% | £-5.96 | £-13.07 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-24 | -3.49% | 5.26% | £6.88 | -3.00% | £-4.50 | £-11.38 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-25 | -3.44% | 6.66% | £7.94 | -3.00% | £-5.33 | £-13.26 | yes |
| NFLX | 2026-06-29 | -3.89% | 5.08% | £3.46 | -3.00% | £-2.70 | £-6.15 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-06-29 | -0.50% | 4.59% | £4.16 | 5.08% | £4.97 | £0.81 | no (window ended) |
| AVGO | 2026-07-01 | -5.17% | 2.97% | £4.94 | -3.00% | £-8.52 | £-13.46 | yes |
| AMZN | 2026-07-01 | -1.73% | 2.92% | £9.48 | 3.38% | £18.33 | £8.85 | no (window ended) |
| ARM | 2026-07-01 | -1.38% | 3.60% | £6.31 | -3.00% | £-7.62 | £-13.93 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-07-07 | -0.60% | 5.71% | £7.27 | 3.31% | £4.86 | £-2.41 | no (window ended) |
| ADI | 2026-07-07 | -1.81% | 4.44% | £11.37 | -3.00% | £-8.57 | £-19.94 | yes |
| AVGO | 2026-07-07 | 0.12% | 8.08% | £20.62 | 0.46% | £1.27 | £-19.35 | no (window ended) |
| NVDA | 2026-07-07 | -0.60% | 4.16% | £15.27 | 3.31% | £14.58 | £-0.69 | no (window ended) |
| PLTR | 2026-07-08 | -4.13% | 4.71% | £7.91 | -3.00% | £-5.75 | £-13.66 | yes |
| PLTR | 2026-07-08 | -4.33% | 4.49% | £7.36 | -3.00% | £-5.77 | £-13.13 | yes |
| COIN | 2026-07-08 | -2.61% | 4.17% | £4.28 | -3.00% | £-3.58 | £-7.86 | yes |
| SNDK1 | 2026-07-08 | -4.83% | 15.90% | £18.97 | -3.00% | £-3.76 | £-22.73 | yes |
| ADI | 2026-07-08 | -1.56% | 4.06% | £10.04 | -3.00% | £-8.59 | £-18.63 | yes |
| MU | 2026-07-08 | -3.50% | 4.35% | £5.27 | -3.00% | £-4.26 | £-9.53 | yes |
| INTC | 2026-07-08 | -3.67% | 4.71% | £9.90 | -3.00% | £-7.30 | £-17.20 | yes |
| INTC | 2026-07-08 | -4.02% | 2.94% | £3.74 | -3.00% | £-4.89 | £-8.63 | yes |
| MU | 2026-07-09 | -9.52% | -0.90% | £-3.15 | -3.00% | £-4.73 | £-1.58 | yes |
| NVDA | 2026-07-09 | -0.55% | 4.96% | £13.44 | 1.15% | £3.44 | £-10.00 | no (window ended) |
| TRP | 2026-07-10 | -0.45% | 5.07% | £4.63 | 3.62% | £3.64 | £-0.99 | no (window ended) |
| INTC | 2026-07-10 | -6.61% | 4.63% | £7.05 | -3.00% | £-4.88 | £-11.93 | yes |
| FLNG | 2026-07-10 | -0.40% | 4.17% | £4.43 | 3.06% | £3.40 | £-1.03 | no (window ended) |
| FLNG | 2026-07-10 | -0.39% | 3.95% | £7.89 | 3.08% | £6.52 | £-1.37 | no (window ended) |
| FLNG | 2026-07-10 | 0.00% | -0.34% | £-1.43 | 3.09% | £6.87 | £8.29 | no (window ended) |
| COIN | 2026-07-10 | 0.00% | 2.95% | £6.54 | -3.00% | £-7.17 | £-13.71 | yes |
| MU | 2026-07-17 | -0.08% | 4.72% | £5.89 | -0.62% | £-0.83 | £-6.72 | no (window ended) |
| SNDK1 | 2026-07-17 | -0.20% | 5.01% | £9.33 | -3.00% | £-5.98 | £-15.31 | yes |

## Excluded (10)

- **SMSN.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **AZN.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **AZN.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **MKS.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **RR.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **MKS.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **SHEL.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **MKS.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **BLT.L**: not an Alpaca-tradable US ticker (LSE-listed or unrecognised)
- **AMOD**: sparse/gappy bar data (9.0 bars/trading-day, below the 50 floor) — simulated result would be unreliable