# Signal stats — do entry conditions predict win/loss? (paper-main, 2026-08-31)

Entry-time `SignalSnapshot` fields correlated against each trade's eventual P&L. MAE/MFE are deliberately excluded — they describe what happened AFTER entry, not something known before the buy (docs/METRICS.md's own separate diagnostic pair). Read-only, no journal write, no network calls — this only re-reads `data/paper-main/trades.jsonl`.

## qsr (233 trades)

| Feature | n | corr with P&L (r) | mean · winners | mean · losers | winner−loser |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA50 slope % | 174 | 0.312 | -0.60 | -1.54 | 0.94 |
| RSI(14) | 174 | 0.305 | 44.62 | 39.97 | 4.65 |
| % from MA50 | 174 | 0.259 | -4.78 | -7.09 | 2.31 |
| Relative volume | 174 | 0.233 | 0.57 | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| RSI(2) | 174 | 0.204 | 46.30 | 34.33 | 11.98 |
| % change today | 174 | 0.191 | 1.64 | 0.04 | 1.60 |
| % from MA200 | 168 | 0.119 | 5.88 | 0.59 | 5.29 |
| % since open at entry | 222 | 0.096 | 0.34 | -0.36 | 0.69 |
| Gap from signal close | 222 | -0.094 | -0.30 | 0.39 | -0.68 |
| Minutes since open at entry | 224 | 0.087 | 133.63 | 104.02 | 29.61 |
| ATR % of price | 174 | 0.083 | 4.55 | 3.75 | 0.80 |

`r` ranges −1..+1 — closer to either end means the entry value and the trade's eventual P&L move together (or apart) fairly consistently across this sample; near 0 means this feature alone doesn't distinguish winners from losers here. `winner−loser` is the same idea in the feature's own units.

- **Market regime (SPY vs MA200):** bull 174 trades, 72% win, 1.58% avg · bear 0 trades, –% win, –% avg