# Signal stats — do entry conditions predict win/loss? (paper-main, 2026-08-17)

Entry-time `SignalSnapshot` fields correlated against each trade's eventual P&L. MAE/MFE are deliberately excluded — they describe what happened AFTER entry, not something known before the buy (docs/METRICS.md's own separate diagnostic pair). Read-only, no journal write, no network calls — this only re-reads `data/paper-main/trades.jsonl`.

## qsr (106 trades)

| Feature | n | corr with P&L (r) | mean · winners | mean · losers | winner−loser |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATR % of price | 54 | 0.418 | 4.71 | 2.77 | 1.94 |
| RSI(14) | 54 | 0.323 | 46.76 | 41.33 | 5.43 |
| % change today | 54 | 0.292 | 3.42 | 0.55 | 2.87 |
| Relative volume | 54 | 0.286 | 0.46 | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| % since open at entry | 98 | 0.199 | 0.62 | -0.46 | 1.08 |
| Gap from signal close | 98 | -0.193 | -0.58 | 0.46 | -1.05 |
| % from MA50 | 54 | 0.120 | -2.80 | -3.63 | 0.83 |
| % from MA200 | 54 | 0.093 | 6.75 | 4.84 | 1.90 |
| RSI(2) | 54 | -0.071 | 52.90 | 62.42 | -9.52 |
| MA50 slope % | 54 | 0.062 | -0.60 | -0.71 | 0.11 |
| Minutes since open at entry | 99 | -0.009 | 100.64 | 99.50 | 1.14 |

`r` ranges −1..+1 — closer to either end means the entry value and the trade's eventual P&L move together (or apart) fairly consistently across this sample; near 0 means this feature alone doesn't distinguish winners from losers here. `winner−loser` is the same idea in the feature's own units.

- **Market regime (SPY vs MA200):** bull 54 trades, 89% win, 3.04% avg · bear 0 trades, –% win, –% avg