# Signal stats — do entry conditions predict win/loss? (Paper02qsr, 2026-08-17)

Entry-time `SignalSnapshot` fields correlated against each trade's eventual P&L. MAE/MFE are deliberately excluded — they describe what happened AFTER entry, not something known before the buy (docs/METRICS.md's own separate diagnostic pair). Read-only, no journal write, no network calls — this only re-reads `data/Paper02qsr/trades.jsonl`.

## qsr (11 trades)

> ⚠️ Only 11 trades, below the 20-trade minimum (docs/METRICS.md rule #1) — treat everything below as a hypothesis to keep watching, not a result to act on.

| Feature | n | corr with P&L (r) | mean · winners | mean · losers | winner−loser |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes since open at entry | 11 | 0.417 | 23.10 | 5.00 | 18.10 |
| MA50 slope % | 11 | 0.393 | 0.38 | -0.70 | 1.08 |
| % from MA50 | 11 | 0.324 | -2.30 | -3.00 | 0.70 |
| RSI(14) | 11 | 0.266 | 42.65 | 43.21 | -0.56 |
| Relative volume | 11 | 0.127 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| ATR % of price | 11 | 0.102 | 3.47 | 2.74 | 0.74 |
| RSI(2) | 11 | -0.067 | 45.84 | 79.70 | -33.87 |
| % since open at entry | 11 | -0.064 | 0.23 | -0.09 | 0.32 |
| % from MA200 | 11 | 0.054 | 1.25 | 5.55 | -4.30 |
| Gap from signal close | 11 | 0.037 | -0.26 | 0.09 | -0.35 |
| % change today | 11 | 0.021 | 1.87 | 1.23 | 0.65 |

`r` ranges −1..+1 — closer to either end means the entry value and the trade's eventual P&L move together (or apart) fairly consistently across this sample; near 0 means this feature alone doesn't distinguish winners from losers here. `winner−loser` is the same idea in the feature's own units.

- **Market regime (SPY vs MA200):** bull 11 trades, 91% win, 2.95% avg · bear 0 trades, –% win, –% avg