# QSR watchlist backtest — skipped candidates, immediate vs confirmation entry (Paper03QSR, 2026-10-02)

Every cash-blocked QSR candidate (skips logged with a full priced plan), simulated two ways against real 1-min bars from the moment of the skip: enter immediately at the plan's limit, or wait for a +2% confirmation buy-stop (GTC, 5-day window). Stop-first when a bar spans both levels — every figure is a floor. Assumed fills at limit/trigger exactly; a real order can do slightly worse.

| Symbol | Date | RelVol | Immediate | Trigger $ | Crossed | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTI | 2026-08-12 | 0.00 | STOP -7.69% | $57.71 | — | never triggered |
| EBAY | 2026-08-12 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $106.57 | — | never triggered |
| HON | 2026-08-12 | 0.00 | STOP -10.18% | $235.29 | 08-12T19:18 | STOP -10.00% |
| ITUB | 2026-08-12 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $7.62 | — | never triggered |
| NKE | 2026-08-12 | 0.00 | STOP -9.36% | $41.77 | — | never triggered |
| AEP | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $125.69 | — | never triggered |
| AMAT | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -10.18% | $487.50 | — | never triggered |
| APH | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $82.11 | — | never triggered |
| APP | 2026-08-28 | 0.34 | STOP -10.18% | $339.23 | — | never triggered |
| ARM | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -10.18% | $256.12 | — | never triggered |
| ASML | 2026-08-28 | 1.37 | TP +7.78% | $1740.04 | — | never triggered |
| ASX | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $39.47 | — | never triggered |
| AVGO | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -10.18% | $382.62 | — | never triggered |
| BA | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -7.69% | $214.07 | — | never triggered |
| C | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -6.47% | $135.99 | — | never triggered |
| CARR | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -8.35% | $60.01 | — | never triggered |
| CAT | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $835.03 | — | never triggered |
| CDNS | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -9.86% | $353.16 | — | never triggered |
| CIEN | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -10.18% | $406.44 | — | never triggered |
| CMI | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -9.69% | $585.08 | — | never triggered |
| COHR | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -10.18% | $295.55 | — | never triggered |
| CRH | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -8.02% | $98.42 | — | never triggered |
| CRWD | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -10.18% | $233.37 | 08-31T13:34 | STOP -10.00% |
| CSCO | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $114.51 | — | never triggered |
| CVS | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -7.50% | $95.18 | 09-01T13:32 | STOP -7.31% |
| DAL | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $83.56 | — | never triggered |
| EBAY | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $105.11 | 08-28T17:58 | TP +8.00% |
| ENB | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -5.69% | $51.37 | — | never triggered |
| FITB | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -5.70% | $56.20 | — | never triggered |
| FIX | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $1634.14 | — | never triggered |
| GE | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -8.59% | $351.95 | — | never triggered |
| GEV | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $963.90 | — | never triggered |
| HWM | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -9.03% | $270.74 | — | never triggered |
| INTC | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $92.16 | 08-28T13:40 | TP +8.00% |
| ISRG | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $376.00 | 08-31T19:48 | TP +8.00% |
| ITUB | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $7.69 | 08-31T13:31 | TP +8.00% |
| KEYS | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $329.21 | — | never triggered |
| KLAC | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $185.94 | — | never triggered |
| LHX | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -7.71% | $268.91 | 09-01T13:32 | STOP -7.53% |
| LRCX | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -10.18% | $324.39 | — | never triggered |
| META | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $584.89 | 08-28T14:49 | TP +8.00% |
| MFG | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $10.91 | — | never triggered |
| MPWR | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -10.18% | $1327.98 | — | never triggered |
| MRVL | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $227.03 | 08-28T13:39 | STOP -10.00% |
| NBIS | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $217.68 | — | never triggered |
| NEE | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -5.07% | $84.52 | — | never triggered |
| NKE | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -9.29% | $39.49 | 08-28T19:20 | STOP -9.11% |
| NOK | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $10.75 | — | never triggered |
| NTES | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $124.73 | — | never triggered |
| NUE | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $258.47 | — | never triggered |
| NVO | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -9.37% | $47.01 | — | never triggered |
| OKTA | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $175.78 | — | never triggered |
| PDD | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -9.28% | $86.73 | — | never triggered |
| PWR | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $631.76 | — | never triggered |
| RCL | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -9.33% | $292.79 | — | never triggered |
| RKLB | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $68.07 | — | never triggered |
| SNDK | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $1489.20 | 08-28T13:40 | TP +8.00% |
| STM | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $51.97 | — | never triggered |
| SU | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $67.68 | 08-31T13:37 | pending |
| TDG | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -7.68% | $1216.33 | — | never triggered |
| TEL | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $207.59 | 09-01T19:25 | pending |
| TRP | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -6.92% | $63.56 | 09-01T13:31 | STOP -6.74% |
| UMC | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $20.99 | — | never triggered |
| UNH | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -7.10% | $404.18 | — | never triggered |
| URI | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $1063.75 | — | never triggered |
| VALE | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -7.89% | $15.60 | — | never triggered |
| VST | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $143.30 | — | never triggered |
| WMB | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -8.43% | $75.91 | 09-01T13:31 | STOP -8.25% |
| TXN | 2026-08-29 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $266.55 | — | never triggered |
| AON | 2026-08-31 | 1.56 | STOP -6.25% | $335.97 | 09-03T13:35 | STOP -6.06% |
| BA | 2026-08-31 | 0.66 | STOP -7.40% | $210.64 | 09-03T13:36 | STOP -7.21% |
| DLR | 2026-08-31 | 0.72 | pending | $189.14 | 09-04T14:59 | STOP -8.40% |
| ETN | 2026-08-31 | 0.80 | TP +7.78% | $405.27 | 09-04T13:43 | TP +8.00% |
| FIX | 2026-08-31 | 0.82 | TP +7.78% | $1549.10 | 09-01T15:02 | TP +8.00% |
| GOOG | 2026-08-31 | 0.99 | TP +7.78% | $338.90 | 09-03T13:31 | pending |
| GOOGL | 2026-08-31 | 0.69 | TP +7.78% | $342.87 | 09-03T13:32 | pending |
| HON | 2026-08-31 | 0.80 | pending | $217.14 | — | never triggered |
| LLY | 2026-08-31 | 0.93 | pending | $1208.51 | — | never triggered |
| NEE | 2026-08-31 | 1.15 | STOP -5.37% | $84.23 | 09-03T16:47 | STOP -5.18% |
| PSA | 2026-08-31 | 1.31 | STOP -5.57% | $312.70 | — | never triggered |
| PWR | 2026-08-31 | 1.17 | TP +7.78% | $619.80 | 09-03T15:00 | TP +8.00% |
| SNDK | 2026-08-31 | 1.22 | TP +7.78% | $1555.89 | 09-01T14:48 | TP +8.00% |
| TT | 2026-08-31 | 0.51 | STOP -7.57% | $455.99 | — | never triggered |
| ASX | 2026-09-01 | 1.01 | TP +7.78% | $37.67 | 09-04T13:35 | TP +8.00% |
| AXP | 2026-09-01 | 0.77 | STOP -5.29% | $332.70 | 09-03T13:33 | STOP -5.10% |
| BA | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 | STOP -7.30% | $210.64 | 09-03T13:36 | STOP -7.11% |
| CAT | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $801.33 | 09-03T15:26 | pending |
| CDNS | 2026-09-01 | 1.05 | STOP -9.58% | $318.07 | — | never triggered |
| CIEN | 2026-09-01 | 0.94 | STOP -10.18% | $361.97 | — | never triggered |
| EMR | 2026-09-01 | 1.39 | TP +7.78% | $150.40 | 09-02T14:42 | TP +8.00% |
| GLW | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $147.45 | 09-02T13:45 | TP +8.00% |
| IBKR | 2026-09-01 | 0.75 | pending | $91.65 | 09-03T13:32 | pending |
| JCI | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $141.24 | 09-03T15:23 | TP +8.00% |
| LLY | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 | pending | $1208.51 | — | never triggered |
| LRCX | 2026-09-01 | 0.93 | TP +7.78% | $295.87 | 09-04T13:30 | TP +8.00% |
| ORLY | 2026-09-01 | 0.93 | pending | $89.91 | — | never triggered |
| ROK | 2026-09-01 | 0.91 | pending | $428.71 | 09-03T13:43 | pending |
| TER | 2026-09-01 | 0.90 | TP +7.78% | $341.60 | 09-02T14:34 | TP +8.00% |
| CAT | 2026-09-02 | 0.37 | TP +4.79% | $803.57 | 09-03T15:31 | TP +5.00% |
| DDOG | 2026-09-02 | 0.80 | TP +7.78% | $224.74 | — | never triggered |
| FAST | 2026-09-02 | 1.07 | pending | $49.29 | 09-04T13:31 | pending |
| FIX | 2026-09-02 | 0.27 | TP +4.79% | $1580.43 | 09-03T13:52 | TP +5.00% |
| FTNT | 2026-09-02 | 1.28 | TP +7.78% | $158.80 | — | never triggered |
| LMT | 2026-09-02 | 1.09 | pending | $547.57 | — | never triggered |
| NOC | 2026-09-02 | 0.83 | STOP -6.97% | $540.75 | — | never triggered |
| NVO | 2026-09-02 | 0.96 | STOP -8.88% | $48.93 | — | never triggered |
| PCAR | 2026-09-02 | 1.12 | STOP -6.64% | $125.58 | 09-04T13:33 | STOP -6.46% |
| SNDK | 2026-09-02 | 0.27 | TP +4.79% | $1578.40 | 09-04T12:19 | TP +5.00% |
| SYK | 2026-09-02 | 1.03 | STOP -8.97% | $320.52 | — | never triggered |
| ARM | 2026-09-03 | 1.18 | TP +7.78% | $253.56 | 09-04T13:53 | TP +8.00% |
| FLEX | 2026-09-03 | 1.97 | TP +7.78% | $109.77 | 09-04T13:34 | TP +8.00% |
| LRCX | 2026-09-03 | 0.09 | TP +4.79% | $288.16 | 09-03T15:29 | TP +5.00% |
| NOK | 2026-09-03 | 0.24 | TP +7.78% | $9.89 | 09-04T12:14 | TP +8.00% |
| NTES | 2026-09-03 | 0.60 | pending | $122.53 | — | never triggered |
| PANW | 2026-09-03 | 0.15 | TP +4.79% | $329.68 | 09-03T14:00 | TP +5.00% |
| PSA | 2026-09-03 | 0.28 | STOP -4.01% | $310.67 | — | never triggered |
| SHW | 2026-09-03 | 0.54 | pending | $338.07 | — | never triggered |
| SPG | 2026-09-03 | 0.00 | STOP -4.62% | $215.15 | — | never triggered |
| TER | 2026-09-03 | 0.03 | TP +4.79% | $338.68 | 09-03T15:01 | TP +5.00% |
| ALAB | 2026-09-04 | 0.81 | STOP -8.18% | $317.69 | 09-04T15:12 | STOP -8.00% |
| AMD | 2026-09-04 | 0.72 | TP +4.79% | $485.36 | 09-08T13:30 | TP +5.00% |
| CDNS | 2026-09-04 | 0.14 | STOP -7.58% | $307.94 | — | never triggered |
| ETN | 2026-09-04 | 0.85 | pending | $430.92 | — | never triggered |
| LRCX | 2026-09-04 | 1.67 | STOP -10.18% | $320.78 | 09-08T15:23 | STOP -10.00% |
| MDB | 2026-09-04 | 0.13 | TP +7.78% | $383.70 | — | never triggered |
| MPWR | 2026-09-04 | 0.99 | TP +7.78% | $1255.25 | — | never triggered |
| PH | 2026-09-04 | 0.14 | pending | $990.37 | — | never triggered |
| SNPS | 2026-09-04 | 0.86 | TP +4.79% | $398.70 | 09-08T13:32 | STOP -8.00% |
| ALAB | 2026-09-08 | 0.26 | STOP -8.18% | $305.02 | 09-08T15:00 | STOP -8.00% |
| AMD | 2026-09-08 | 0.27 | TP +4.79% | $503.67 | 09-08T15:05 | TP +5.00% |
| ARM | 2026-09-08 | 0.19 | TP +4.79% | $262.42 | 09-08T15:14 | STOP -8.00% |
| AXP | 2026-09-08 | 1.08 | STOP -5.49% | $331.21 | — | never triggered |
| BAM | 2026-09-08 | 2.17 | STOP -7.66% | $49.41 | — | never triggered |
| BKNG | 2026-09-08 | 0.62 | STOP -9.77% | $187.43 | — | never triggered |
| BSX | 2026-09-08 | 0.77 | pending | $46.27 | — | never triggered |
| COHR | 2026-09-08 | 0.33 | STOP -10.18% | $306.49 | 09-08T14:27 | STOP -10.00% |
| DASH | 2026-09-08 | 1.25 | STOP -10.18% | $202.67 | 09-11T13:32 | STOP -10.00% |
| ISRG | 2026-09-08 | 0.75 | TP +7.78% | $357.02 | 09-09T13:47 | TP +8.00% |
| LMT | 2026-09-08 | 0.08 | STOP -4.96% | $547.24 | — | never triggered |
| MDB | 2026-09-08 | 0.10 | TP +4.79% | $369.12 | 09-10T13:47 | TP +5.00% |
| NVS | 2026-09-08 | 5.11 | pending | $140.74 | — | never triggered |
| PDD | 2026-09-08 | 0.17 | pending | $81.78 | — | never triggered |
| PM | 2026-09-08 | 1.38 | pending | $189.08 | 09-10T13:30 | pending |
| SBUX | 2026-09-08 | 1.31 | STOP -6.89% | $102.65 | — | never triggered |
| SNPS | 2026-09-08 | 0.10 | STOP -8.18% | $409.51 | — | never triggered |
| SPG | 2026-09-08 | 2.90 | STOP -4.53% | $213.41 | — | never triggered |
| UBER | 2026-09-08 | 0.32 | pending | $74.19 | — | never triggered |
| URI | 2026-09-08 | 0.68 | pending | $1040.43 | 09-09T13:33 | pending |
| AZN | 2026-09-09 | 0.94 | pending | $160.79 | 09-11T13:30 | pending |
| BN | 2026-09-09 | 0.00 | STOP -6.81% | $39.94 | — | never triggered |
| BX | 2026-09-09 | 1.12 | STOP -9.04% | $129.82 | 09-11T14:06 | STOP -8.86% |
| FDX | 2026-09-09 | 0.00 | STOP -7.27% | $317.65 | — | never triggered |
| GE | 2026-09-09 | 0.48 | pending | $330.39 | — | never triggered |
| GOOG | 2026-09-09 | 0.25 | TP +7.78% | $332.59 | 09-11T13:30 | TP +8.00% |
| ISRG | 2026-09-09 | 0.09 | TP +4.79% | $361.76 | 09-10T19:10 | TP +5.00% |
| MNST | 2026-09-09 | 0.00 | pending | $43.77 | — | never triggered |
| PLD | 2026-09-09 | 1.40 | STOP -4.69% | $137.37 | — | never triggered |
| SE | 2026-09-09 | 0.50 | STOP -10.18% | $110.57 | — | never triggered |
| UNH | 2026-09-09 | 1.27 | STOP -5.36% | $398.33 | 09-10T13:44 | STOP -5.17% |
| ADBE | 2026-09-10 | 1.61 | TP +7.78% | $249.33 | 09-11T13:58 | pending |
| AMGN | 2026-09-10 | 1.52 | TP +7.78% | $394.17 | — | never triggered |
| BHP | 2026-09-10 | 0.23 | pending | $89.22 | — | never triggered |
| BKR | 2026-09-10 | 0.87 | STOP -7.84% | $60.58 | — | never triggered |
| CARR | 2026-09-10 | 1.20 | pending | $57.59 | 09-11T13:30 | STOP -7.70% |
| CRH | 2026-09-10 | 1.05 | STOP -8.75% | $90.88 | — | never triggered |
| EMR | 2026-09-10 | 1.04 | TP +7.78% | $153.20 | — | never triggered |
| ENB | 2026-09-10 | 0.62 | STOP -5.23% | $49.43 | — | never triggered |
| EW | 2026-09-10 | 0.00 | pending | $88.34 | — | never triggered |
| IBKR | 2026-09-10 | 0.05 | pending | $91.22 | 09-11T14:00 | pending |
| ISRG | 2026-09-10 | 0.13 | TP +4.79% | $364.52 | 09-11T13:30 | TP +5.00% |
| KKR | 2026-09-10 | 1.06 | STOP -9.56% | $104.66 | — | never triggered |
| LRCX | 2026-09-10 | 0.86 | STOP -10.18% | $309.57 | — | never triggered |
| ROK | 2026-09-10 | 0.85 | pending | $434.25 | — | never triggered |
| SHW | 2026-09-10 | 0.75 | pending | $327.26 | 09-14T19:13 | pending |
| TDG | 2026-09-10 | 0.80 | pending | $1165.45 | — | never triggered |
| TXN | 2026-09-10 | 0.90 | TP +7.78% | $267.04 | 09-11T13:45 | TP +8.00% |
| UNH | 2026-09-10 | 0.22 | STOP -5.13% | $405.25 | — | never triggered |
| ABT | 2026-09-11 | 0.00 | STOP -7.74% | $106.23 | — | never triggered |
| AXP | 2026-09-11 | 0.10 | STOP -3.59% | $329.39 | — | never triggered |
| ETN | 2026-09-11 | 0.00 | TP +7.78% | $425.09 | 09-11T13:44 | pending |
| GE | 2026-09-11 | 0.03 | STOP -5.21% | $333.19 | — | never triggered |
| GOOG | 2026-09-11 | 0.10 | TP +4.79% | $342.78 | 09-14T13:50 | TP +5.00% |
| HDB | 2026-09-11 | 1.71 | pending | $23.94 | — | never triggered |
| ISRG | 2026-09-11 | 0.12 | TP +4.79% | $371.95 | 09-11T19:32 | TP +5.00% |
| NVO | 2026-09-11 | 0.19 | STOP -9.00% | $43.80 | — | never triggered |
| SHW | 2026-09-11 | 0.08 | pending | $328.83 | — | never triggered |
| TRP | 2026-09-11 | 1.73 | pending | $61.80 | 09-16T16:15 | STOP -6.00% |
| UNP | 2026-09-11 | 0.00 | STOP -5.77% | $293.36 | — | never triggered |
| URI | 2026-09-11 | 0.05 | TP +4.79% | $1019.20 | — | never triggered |
| AJG | 2026-09-14 | 1.11 | STOP -8.45% | $256.71 | — | never triggered |
| AMAT | 2026-09-14 | 1.00 | TP +7.78% | $438.51 | 09-18T19:41 | TP +8.00% |
| AMD | 2026-09-14 | 0.93 | TP +4.79% | $500.24 | 09-15T13:30 | TP +5.00% |
| APH | 2026-09-14 | 1.38 | TP +7.78% | $80.03 | — | never triggered |
| ASML | 2026-09-14 | 0.18 | TP +7.78% | $1631.71 | 09-16T13:24 | TP +8.00% |
| ASX | 2026-09-14 | 1.61 | TP +7.78% | $38.38 | 09-16T13:38 | TP +8.00% |
| BCS | 2026-09-14 | 1.75 | STOP -5.39% | $26.28 | — | never triggered |
| CMCSA | 2026-09-14 | 1.44 | STOP -8.76% | $25.39 | — | never triggered |
| CMI | 2026-09-14 | 0.98 | pending | $555.83 | — | never triggered |
| GE | 2026-09-14 | 0.34 | pending | $323.84 | — | never triggered |
| GEV | 2026-09-14 | 0.55 | TP +7.78% | $896.18 | 09-16T13:30 | TP +8.00% |
| GLW | 2026-09-14 | 0.35 | TP +7.78% | $155.66 | 09-17T13:47 | pending |
| GOOG | 2026-09-14 | 0.12 | TP +4.79% | $348.75 | 09-18T12:00 | STOP -4.48% |
| GS | 2026-09-14 | 1.44 | STOP -7.12% | $1004.34 | — | never triggered |
| GSK | 2026-09-14 | 0.17 | pending | $50.94 | 09-17T13:48 | STOP -6.36% |
| LHX | 2026-09-14 | 2.00 | pending | $254.35 | — | never triggered |
| MS | 2026-09-14 | 1.10 | STOP -6.75% | $210.06 | — | never triggered |
| MU | 2026-09-14 | 0.64 | TP +4.79% | $942.46 | 09-15T14:31 | TP +5.00% |
| NOK | 2026-09-14 | 0.15 | TP +7.78% | $10.36 | 09-16T12:00 | pending |
| NVDA | 2026-09-14 | 0.14 | TP +7.78% | $214.54 | 09-16T13:48 | TP +8.00% |
| NXPI | 2026-09-14 | 1.09 | TP +7.78% | $230.78 | — | never triggered |
| SPGI | 2026-09-14 | 1.35 | pending | $424.13 | — | never triggered |
| STM | 2026-09-14 | 1.26 | TP +7.78% | $49.53 | 09-18T13:30 | TP +8.00% |
| SYK | 2026-09-14 | 1.32 | pending | $285.61 | 09-16T13:54 | pending |
| TER | 2026-09-14 | 0.47 | TP +7.78% | $351.14 | 09-17T13:30 | TP +8.00% |
| UNH | 2026-09-14 | 0.10 | pending | $389.60 | — | never triggered |
| VST | 2026-09-14 | 1.00 | pending | $145.63 | 09-17T15:47 | pending |
| AMD | 2026-09-15 | 0.18 | TP +4.79% | $521.00 | 09-16T13:38 | TP +5.00% |
| APO | 2026-09-15 | 0.74 | STOP -8.73% | $129.55 | — | never triggered |
| ASML | 2026-09-15 | 0.16 | TP +4.79% | $1627.93 | 09-16T13:24 | TP +5.00% |
| COF | 2026-09-15 | 1.41 | STOP -6.74% | $209.77 | — | never triggered |
| CSCO | 2026-09-15 | 1.15 | pending | $112.69 | — | never triggered |
| GS | 2026-09-15 | 1.21 | STOP -5.55% | $994.24 | — | never triggered |
| HSBC | 2026-09-15 | 0.64 | STOP -4.58% | $103.49 | — | never triggered |
| KEYS | 2026-09-15 | 0.81 | TP +7.78% | $325.01 | 09-17T13:30 | TP +8.00% |
| MELI | 2026-09-15 | 0.73 | STOP -9.63% | $1892.18 | — | never triggered |
| MU | 2026-09-15 | 0.11 | TP +4.79% | $953.19 | 09-17T13:20 | TP +5.00% |
| NKE | 2026-09-15 | 1.06 | STOP -8.23% | $37.11 | — | never triggered |
| SE | 2026-09-15 | 1.75 | pending | $105.70 | — | never triggered |
| SHW | 2026-09-15 | 0.13 | pending | $327.01 | 09-16T17:25 | pending |
| UBS | 2026-09-15 | 0.80 | STOP -5.44% | $51.95 | — | never triggered |
| AMD | 2026-09-16 | 0.16 | TP +4.79% | $532.94 | 09-17T13:30 | TP +5.00% |
| ASML | 2026-09-16 | 0.12 | TP +4.79% | $1643.08 | 09-18T13:38 | TP +5.00% |
| AZN | 2026-09-16 | 0.59 | pending | $167.89 | 09-21T13:30 | STOP -6.67% |
| BA | 2026-09-16 | 2.09 | STOP -6.89% | $201.77 | 09-16T19:50 | STOP -6.70% |
| BLK | 2026-09-16 | 1.15 | pending | $1073.52 | 09-21T13:30 | pending |
| BSX | 2026-09-16 | 0.59 | pending | $44.33 | — | never triggered |
| CDNS | 2026-09-16 | 0.77 | TP +7.78% | $290.75 | 09-21T15:00 | TP +8.00% |
| CSCO | 2026-09-16 | 0.00 | pending | $112.69 | — | never triggered |
| ETR | 2026-09-16 | 2.08 | STOP -5.55% | $104.79 | — | never triggered |
| F | 2026-09-16 | 1.38 | STOP -9.73% | $13.87 | — | never triggered |
| GS | 2026-09-16 | 0.88 | STOP -5.52% | $988.77 | — | never triggered |
| KEYS | 2026-09-16 | 0.11 | TP +4.79% | $324.60 | 09-17T13:30 | TP +5.00% |
| MELI | 2026-09-16 | 0.32 | STOP -6.62% | $1869.69 | — | never triggered |
| MU | 2026-09-16 | 0.15 | TP +4.79% | $945.86 | 09-17T12:23 | TP +5.00% |
| NGG | 2026-09-16 | 0.49 | pending | $78.03 | — | never triggered |
| NU | 2026-09-16 | 1.17 | STOP -10.16% | $14.01 | 09-17T15:44 | STOP -9.98% |
| NVO | 2026-09-16 | 1.50 | STOP -8.86% | $42.86 | 09-17T14:15 | STOP -8.68% |
| RIO | 2026-09-16 | 0.76 | pending | $99.21 | — | never triggered |
| SBUX | 2026-09-16 | 2.23 | pending | $100.26 | — | never triggered |
| TFC | 2026-09-16 | 1.36 | STOP -5.74% | $49.23 | 09-21T18:45 | STOP -5.55% |
| VALE | 2026-09-16 | 1.19 | pending | $14.71 | — | never triggered |
| ABT | 2026-09-17 | 1.52 | pending | $103.76 | 09-22T13:57 | STOP -7.23% |
| AMAT | 2026-09-17 | 1.12 | TP +7.78% | $426.86 | 09-18T13:42 | TP +8.00% |
| AMD | 2026-09-17 | 0.13 | TP +4.79% | $544.68 | 09-17T15:07 | TP +5.00% |
| ARM | 2026-09-17 | 0.71 | TP +7.78% | $265.19 | 09-17T17:07 | TP +8.00% |
| ASML | 2026-09-17 | 0.15 | TP +4.79% | $1659.91 | 09-18T19:52 | TP +5.00% |
| BAC | 2026-09-17 | 1.12 | STOP -7.15% | $58.83 | — | never triggered |
| BKR | 2026-09-17 | 0.73 | pending | $57.53 | 09-18T19:50 | pending |
| BMY | 2026-09-17 | 2.54 | pending | $63.96 | — | never triggered |
| CAH | 2026-09-17 | 1.16 | pending | $229.21 | — | never triggered |
| COST | 2026-09-17 | 0.98 | pending | $910.11 | — | never triggered |
| FLEX | 2026-09-17 | 1.38 | TP +7.78% | $111.46 | 09-21T15:06 | TP +8.00% |
| GLW | 2026-09-17 | 0.28 | TP +7.78% | $153.70 | 09-21T13:30 | pending |
| GS | 2026-09-17 | 0.91 | STOP -5.99% | $960.07 | 09-21T19:46 | STOP -5.81% |
| INTU | 2026-09-17 | 1.25 | STOP -10.18% | $319.64 | — | never triggered |
| KEYS | 2026-09-17 | 0.11 | TP +4.79% | $337.76 | 09-21T13:31 | TP +5.00% |
| MU | 2026-09-17 | 0.24 | TP +4.79% | $1003.05 | 09-18T18:03 | TP +5.00% |
| NFLX | 2026-09-17 | 1.19 | pending | $74.18 | — | never triggered |
| PEP | 2026-09-17 | 2.46 | STOP -4.89% | $134.84 | — | never triggered |
| TMUS | 2026-09-17 | 1.15 | pending | $171.28 | — | never triggered |
| ADBE | 2026-09-18 | 0.00 | STOP -10.18% | $256.53 | — | never triggered |
| APP | 2026-09-18 | 1.21 | TP +7.78% | $315.89 | 09-21T13:45 | STOP -10.00% |
| AVGO | 2026-09-18 | 0.48 | pending | $366.72 | — | never triggered |
| BLK | 2026-09-18 | 0.66 | pending | $1089.27 | 09-21T19:16 | pending |
| CMI | 2026-09-18 | 0.57 | pending | $549.23 | — | never triggered |
| CSX | 2026-09-18 | 0.43 | pending | $48.20 | — | never triggered |
| GM | 2026-09-18 | 1.38 | pending | $84.04 | 09-21T16:07 | STOP -7.91% |
| NUE | 2026-09-18 | 0.72 | pending | $254.60 | — | never triggered |
| RKLB | 2026-09-18 | 0.38 | TP +7.78% | $65.44 | 09-21T13:17 | TP +8.00% |
| SHOP | 2026-09-18 | 0.93 | TP +7.78% | $131.42 | 09-21T17:41 | TP +8.00% |
| SLB | 2026-09-18 | 1.03 | pending | $52.37 | 09-21T19:11 | pending |
| SPGI | 2026-09-18 | 0.95 | pending | $417.68 | — | never triggered |
| SPOT | 2026-09-18 | 1.14 | pending | $520.70 | 09-22T13:30 | pending |
| UNH | 2026-09-18 | 0.00 | pending | $383.02 | — | never triggered |
| VRTX | 2026-09-18 | 0.25 | pending | $516.75 | 09-22T13:30 | pending |
| CMI | 2026-09-19 | 0.00 | pending | $549.23 | — | never triggered |
| RELX | 2026-09-19 | 0.00 | pending | $34.22 | — | never triggered |
| SLB | 2026-09-19 | 0.00 | pending | $52.37 | 09-21T19:11 | pending |
| SPGI | 2026-09-19 | 0.00 | pending | $417.68 | — | never triggered |
| SPOT | 2026-09-19 | 0.00 | pending | $520.70 | 09-22T13:30 | pending |
| AVGO | 2026-09-21 | 0.10 | pending | $364.30 | 09-22T13:31 | pending |
| BLK | 2026-09-21 | 0.38 | pending | $1107.54 | — | never triggered |
| BN | 2026-09-21 | 1.35 | STOP -6.76% | $39.20 | — | never triggered |
| BP | 2026-09-21 | 1.83 | pending | $43.52 | 09-22T15:51 | pending |
| FANG | 2026-09-21 | 1.27 | pending | $190.08 | 09-24T14:16 | pending |
| FDX | 2026-09-21 | 1.78 | pending | $302.54 | — | never triggered |
| KEYS | 2026-09-21 | 0.09 | TP +4.79% | $347.03 | 09-22T18:29 | TP +5.00% |
| MELI | 2026-09-21 | 0.20 | STOP -6.35% | $1862.52 | — | never triggered |
| ORLY | 2026-09-21 | 1.82 | pending | $85.84 | 09-22T13:44 | pending |
| OXY | 2026-09-21 | 1.05 | pending | $57.64 | 09-23T14:14 | pending |
| SPGI | 2026-09-21 | 0.13 | STOP -5.14% | $412.42 | — | never triggered |
| SPOT | 2026-09-21 | 0.44 | STOP -7.54% | $528.30 | — | never triggered |
| TDG | 2026-09-21 | 1.13 | pending | $1141.11 | — | never triggered |
| TRP | 2026-09-21 | 0.83 | pending | $61.26 | — | never triggered |
| ABNB | 2026-09-22 | 1.40 | pending | $161.99 | — | never triggered |
| APD | 2026-09-22 | 1.43 | STOP -6.02% | $293.76 | — | never triggered |
| BHP | 2026-09-22 | 1.03 | pending | $87.50 | — | never triggered |
| COP | 2026-09-22 | 1.01 | pending | $128.80 | 09-23T15:28 | pending |
| COST | 2026-09-22 | 0.33 | pending | $921.41 | 09-25T13:52 | pending |
| DB | 2026-09-22 | 1.24 | pending | $37.08 | — | never triggered |
| IMO | 2026-09-22 | 0.00 | pending | $126.70 | 09-24T13:58 | pending |
| MCO | 2026-09-22 | 1.45 | STOP -6.50% | $477.86 | — | never triggered |
| PGR | 2026-09-22 | 0.77 | pending | $208.93 | 09-23T14:21 | pending |
| PSA | 2026-09-22 | 1.59 | pending | $294.56 | — | never triggered |
| TFC | 2026-09-22 | 1.25 | pending | $48.84 | — | never triggered |
| CTAS | 2026-09-23 | 1.85 | pending | $195.43 | 09-24T13:31 | pending |
| DASH | 2026-09-23 | 2.34 | pending | $192.45 | 09-24T13:33 | pending |
| FITB | 2026-09-23 | 1.94 | pending | $52.74 | — | never triggered |
| SPOT | 2026-09-23 | 0.20 | pending | $510.29 | 09-23T19:08 | pending |
| TDG | 2026-09-23 | 0.09 | pending | $1141.98 | — | never triggered |
| VALE | 2026-09-23 | 0.98 | pending | $14.04 | — | never triggered |
| AMT | 2026-09-24 | 0.97 | pending | $169.90 | — | never triggered |
| AXP | 2026-09-24 | 1.04 | pending | $312.67 | — | never triggered |
| CAH | 2026-09-24 | 1.48 | pending | $226.84 | — | never triggered |
| MFG | 2026-09-24 | 1.97 | pending | $10.75 | 09-25T13:30 | pending |
| MS | 2026-09-24 | 1.31 | pending | $200.78 | — | never triggered |
| MUFG | 2026-09-24 | 1.11 | pending | $23.94 | — | never triggered |
| RCL | 2026-09-24 | 0.70 | TP +7.78% | $246.67 | 09-28T16:23 | TP +8.00% |
| UBS | 2026-09-24 | 3.53 | pending | $49.44 | 09-25T13:30 | pending |
| CVS | 2026-09-25 | 0.57 | pending | $89.54 | 09-28T13:43 | pending |
| RIO | 2026-09-25 | 0.46 | pending | $95.82 | 09-30T14:05 | pending |
| BKNG | 2026-09-26 | 0.00 | pending | $165.77 | 09-28T17:11 | pending |
| OXY | 2026-09-26 | 0.00 | pending | $58.58 | — | never triggered |
| SCHW | 2026-09-26 | 0.00 | pending | $100.30 | — | never triggered |
| CDNS | 2026-09-28 | 0.11 | TP +4.79% | $332.98 | 09-30T18:24 | TP +5.00% |
| COHR | 2026-09-28 | 0.59 | TP +7.78% | $284.14 | 09-29T13:02 | TP +8.00% |
| CRH | 2026-09-28 | 0.50 | pending | $84.50 | 09-29T13:30 | pending |
| IMO | 2026-09-28 | 1.62 | pending | $122.72 | 09-30T13:32 | pending |
| KKR | 2026-09-28 | 1.01 | pending | $95.45 | — | never triggered |
| MDB | 2026-09-28 | 1.56 | TP +4.79% | $340.35 | 09-28T15:27 | TP +5.00% |
| NFLX | 2026-09-28 | 0.65 | pending | $70.91 | 09-29T13:31 | pending |
| PSA | 2026-09-28 | 0.94 | pending | $288.76 | — | never triggered |
| REGN | 2026-09-28 | 2.08 | pending | $762.47 | 09-30T18:11 | pending |
| WPM | 2026-09-28 | 1.23 | pending | $139.11 | — | never triggered |
| CME | 2026-09-29 | 0.00 | pending | $269.33 | — | never triggered |
| COHR | 2026-09-29 | 0.15 | TP +4.79% | $298.86 | 09-29T14:19 | TP +5.00% |
| COP | 2026-09-29 | 1.23 | pending | $128.28 | — | never triggered |
| DLR | 2026-09-29 | 0.05 | pending | $181.65 | — | never triggered |
| EQNR | 2026-09-29 | 0.09 | pending | $42.25 | 10-02T13:53 | pending |
| MDB | 2026-09-29 | 0.20 | TP +4.79% | $332.79 | 09-29T14:02 | TP +5.00% |
| MDT | 2026-09-29 | 1.16 | pending | $88.58 | — | never triggered |
| NUE | 2026-09-29 | 1.10 | pending | $240.66 | 10-02T13:36 | pending |
| OKE | 2026-09-29 | 0.87 | pending | $89.51 | — | never triggered |
| SPGI | 2026-09-29 | 0.50 | pending | $396.91 | 09-30T13:40 | pending |
| SPOT | 2026-09-29 | 0.97 | pending | $502.35 | — | never triggered |
| URI | 2026-09-29 | 1.80 | TP +7.78% | $1013.14 | 09-29T19:58 | pending |
| APP | 2026-09-30 | 0.19 | STOP -10.18% | $307.36 | — | never triggered |
| C | 2026-09-30 | 0.88 | pending | $130.48 | — | never triggered |
| COHR | 2026-09-30 | 0.12 | TP +4.79% | $291.30 | 10-01T13:33 | TP +5.00% |
| CRH | 2026-09-30 | 0.75 | pending | $84.76 | — | never triggered |
| ELV | 2026-09-30 | 0.74 | pending | $394.25 | — | never triggered |
| EOG | 2026-09-30 | 1.03 | pending | $140.80 | 10-01T14:30 | pending |
| GSK | 2026-09-30 | 1.40 | pending | $49.42 | — | never triggered |
| IBKR | 2026-09-30 | 0.87 | pending | $86.98 | 10-01T16:14 | pending |
| IBN | 2026-09-30 | 1.26 | pending | $27.96 | — | never triggered |
| MDB | 2026-09-30 | 0.23 | pending | $367.36 | — | never triggered |
| MELI | 2026-09-30 | 1.18 | pending | $1763.99 | — | never triggered |
| NVO | 2026-09-30 | 0.77 | pending | $39.37 | — | never triggered |
| T | 2026-09-30 | 0.75 | pending | $24.89 | — | never triggered |
| TFC | 2026-09-30 | 0.00 | pending | $47.44 | — | never triggered |
| TRGP | 2026-09-30 | 1.07 | pending | $274.08 | 10-01T14:55 | pending |
| TTE | 2026-09-30 | 1.15 | pending | $87.33 | — | never triggered |
| UNP | 2026-09-30 | 1.11 | pending | $276.53 | 10-02T14:38 | pending |
| VALE | 2026-09-30 | 0.95 | pending | $13.48 | 10-02T13:30 | pending |
| WMB | 2026-09-30 | 1.40 | pending | $68.99 | 10-01T16:41 | pending |
| APP | 2026-10-01 | 1.02 | pending | $287.29 | — | never triggered |
| B | 2026-10-01 | 1.20 | pending | $41.46 | — | never triggered |
| COF | 2026-10-01 | 1.71 | pending | $199.38 | — | never triggered |
| COHR | 2026-10-01 | 0.20 | TP +4.79% | $302.41 | 10-01T14:09 | TP +5.00% |
| IBM | 2026-10-01 | 0.36 | pending | $233.78 | — | never triggered |
| INTU | 2026-10-01 | 0.29 | pending | $290.09 | — | never triggered |
| LYG | 2026-10-01 | 1.89 | pending | $5.51 | — | never triggered |
| MDB | 2026-10-01 | 0.20 | pending | $359.40 | — | never triggered |
| MELI | 2026-10-01 | 1.09 | pending | $1732.82 | — | never triggered |
| MFG | 2026-10-01 | 0.62 | pending | $10.76 | 10-01T19:58 | pending |
| MUFG | 2026-10-01 | 0.89 | pending | $22.84 | — | never triggered |
| ORCL | 2026-10-01 | 0.36 | pending | $141.22 | 10-02T13:30 | pending |
| SAN | 2026-10-01 | 1.04 | pending | $13.31 | 10-02T14:47 | pending |
| SONY | 2026-10-01 | 1.04 | pending | $23.92 | — | never triggered |
| SPOT | 2026-10-01 | 0.34 | pending | $505.07 | — | never triggered |
| AEM | 2026-10-02 | 0.00 | pending | $187.22 | — | never triggered |
| APP | 2026-10-02 | 0.14 | pending | $276.60 | 10-02T14:08 | pending |
| ARGX | 2026-10-02 | 0.28 | pending | $936.20 | — | never triggered |
| AZN | 2026-10-02 | 0.00 | pending | $161.69 | — | never triggered |
| FLEX | 2026-10-02 | 0.40 | pending | $119.63 | — | never triggered |
| HSBC | 2026-10-02 | 0.34 | pending | $97.42 | — | never triggered |
| PDD | 2026-10-02 | 0.17 | pending | $77.04 | — | never triggered |

## Summary

- Clusters simulated: 397
- **Immediate entry**: 223 resolved — 112 TP / 111 stop (50% win), avg -0.41%
- **Confirmation entry**: trigger crossed on 172/397; of those, 108 resolved — 71 TP / 37 stop (66% win), avg +1.72%
- Losses DODGED by waiting (immediate stopped out, trigger never fired): 86
- Wins MISSED by waiting (immediate hit TP, trigger never fired): 25
- **Trailing trough trigger (+2% off the running low — dan's variant)**: fired on 323/397; of those, 189 resolved — 109 TP / 80 stop (58% win), avg +0.85%; dodged 25 / missed 4

## Trailing-arm reversal filters (classic bottom-confirmation metrics)

| variant | entered | resolved | win | avg | dodged | missed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| trail only (baseline) | 323 | 189 | 58% | +0.85% | 25 | 4 |
| + bounce participation: cross-day relVol ≥ 1 | 15 | 10 | 60% | +1.01% | 104 | 107 |
| + capitulation: trough-day relVol ≥ 1.5 | 68 | 39 | 62% | +1.22% | 91 | 90 |
| + reversal day: cross above prior session high | 132 | 72 | 50% | -0.17% | 79 | 73 |
| + trend context: MA50 slope > −1.5% | 262 | 140 | 52% | +0.10% | 39 | 38 |
| + signal relVol ≥ 0.1 | 240 | 130 | 57% | +0.68% | 53 | 37 |
| + MA50 slope AND signal relVol | 195 | 96 | 50% | -0.31% | 62 | 62 |
| + reversal day AND cross-day relVol ≥ 1 | 0 | 0 | –% | – | 111 | 112 |

## Relative volume at signal (session volume so far ÷ prior 20-day avg, IEX-internal ratio)

- Immediate WINNERS: n=112, avg 0.47, median 0.19
- Immediate LOSERS: n=111, avg 0.63, median 0.44
- Signals that later TRIGGERED the +2% confirmation: n=172, avg 0.68, median 0.65
- Signals that never triggered: n=225, avg 0.65, median 0.54
- Confirmation-entry winners: n=71, avg 0.49, median 0.24 · losers: n=37, avg 0.78, median 0.81

# Entry-time indicators vs simulated IMMEDIATE outcome

Indicators are as of the PRIOR session's close (buildSnapshot over daily bars strictly before the signal day — using the signal day's own completed bar would leak post-signal price into RSI/MAs). relVolume is the exception: measured live at the signal moment. "% change today"/gap/since-open fields therefore describe the prior session, not the signal day.

## unbought pool — immediate entry (223 trades)

| Feature | n | corr with P&L (r) | mean · winners | mean · losers | winner−loser |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATR % of price | 223 | 0.337 | 4.59 | 3.09 | 1.50 |
| % from MA200 | 223 | 0.308 | 12.32 | 0.15 | 12.16 |
| RSI(14) | 223 | 0.213 | 45.21 | 41.25 | 3.96 |
| MA50 slope % | 223 | -0.187 | -1.10 | -0.46 | -0.64 |
| RSI(2) | 223 | 0.099 | 38.96 | 31.41 | 7.56 |
| Relative volume | 223 | -0.074 | 0.47 | 0.63 | -0.16 |
| % change today | 223 | 0.032 | -0.19 | -0.43 | 0.24 |
| % from MA50 | 223 | 0.001 | -4.51 | -4.57 | 0.06 |
| Gap from signal close | 0 | – | – | – | – |
| % since open at entry | 0 | – | – | – | – |
| Minutes since open at entry | 0 | – | – | – | – |

`r` ranges −1..+1 — closer to either end means the entry value and the trade's eventual P&L move together (or apart) fairly consistently across this sample; near 0 means this feature alone doesn't distinguish winners from losers here. `winner−loser` is the same idea in the feature's own units.

- **Market regime (SPY vs MA200):** bull 223 trades, 50% win, -0.41% avg · bear 0 trades, –% win, –% avg

Read the two arms on the same clusters, not against each other's different n. The sample is every signal this account did NOT buy (priced skips + never-priced signals from the newlyA log) — the bought ones live in the real journal, deliberately not re-simulated here.