# QSR watchlist backtest — skipped candidates, immediate vs confirmation entry (Paper02qsr, 2026-09-02)

Every cash-blocked QSR candidate (skips logged with a full priced plan), simulated two ways against real 1-min bars from the moment of the skip: enter immediately at the plan's limit, or wait for a +2% confirmation buy-stop (GTC, 5-day window). Stop-first when a bar spans both levels — every figure is a floor. Assumed fills at limit/trigger exactly; a real order can do slightly worse.

| Symbol | Date | RelVol | Immediate | Trigger $ | Crossed | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDOG | 2026-08-07 | 1.60 | TP +3.79% | $240.88 | 08-10T13:44 | TP +4.00% |
| EOG | 2026-08-07 | 0.88 | TP +3.79% | $137.67 | 08-10T13:30 | TP +4.00% |
| IBKR | 2026-08-07 | 0.62 | TP +3.80% | $88.36 | 08-10T13:30 | TP +4.00% |
| VST | 2026-08-07 | 1.29 | TP +3.79% | $144.33 | 08-10T14:21 | pending |
| AEP | 2026-08-10 | 0.00 | pending | $127.32 | — | never triggered |
| BTI | 2026-08-10 | 0.33 | pending | $58.27 | — | never triggered |
| SU | 2026-08-10 | 0.00 | TP +3.80% | $62.36 | 08-10T14:13 | TP +4.00% |
| TRP | 2026-08-10 | 0.01 | pending | $64.77 | — | never triggered |
| BTI | 2026-08-11 | 0.03 | pending | $58.37 | — | never triggered |
| EBAY | 2026-08-11 | 0.00 | pending | $109.86 | — | never triggered |
| HON | 2026-08-11 | 1.10 | STOP -8.18% | $236.81 | — | never triggered |
| ITUB | 2026-08-11 | 0.82 | STOP -5.53% | $7.74 | — | never triggered |
| NKE | 2026-08-11 | 0.60 | STOP -6.37% | $41.73 | — | never triggered |
| CIEN | 2026-08-12 | 0.30 | TP +3.79% | $435.51 | 08-12T14:47 | TP +4.00% |
| EBAY | 2026-08-12 | 0.03 | pending | $107.18 | — | never triggered |
| HON | 2026-08-12 | 0.03 | STOP -8.12% | $234.24 | 08-12T17:35 | STOP -7.93% |
| ITUB | 2026-08-12 | 0.14 | TP +3.72% | $7.67 | — | never triggered |
| NKE | 2026-08-12 | 0.02 | STOP -6.04% | $41.99 | — | never triggered |
| NOK | 2026-08-12 | 0.31 | TP +3.75% | $10.45 | 08-12T14:44 | TP +3.95% |
| CIEN | 2026-08-13 | 0.04 | TP +3.79% | $444.22 | 08-13T13:59 | TP +4.00% |
| EBAY | 2026-08-13 | 0.03 | TP +3.79% | $104.87 | — | never triggered |
| ENB | 2026-08-13 | 0.29 | pending | $52.40 | — | never triggered |
| HON | 2026-08-13 | 0.01 | STOP -7.70% | $239.92 | — | never triggered |
| ITUB | 2026-08-13 | 0.11 | TP +3.79% | $7.57 | — | never triggered |
| NKE | 2026-08-13 | 0.04 | STOP -5.93% | $41.54 | — | never triggered |
| NOK | 2026-08-13 | 0.05 | TP +3.75% | $10.69 | 08-13T14:11 | TP +3.96% |
| SNDK | 2026-08-13 | 0.56 | TP +3.79% | $1593.39 | 08-14T12:14 | TP +4.00% |
| AMAT | 2026-08-14 | 0.23 | TP +3.79% | $528.85 | 08-17T13:43 | STOP -8.00% |
| CIEN | 2026-08-14 | 0.01 | TP +3.79% | $446.70 | 08-17T14:27 | STOP -8.00% |
| ENB | 2026-08-14 | 0.01 | pending | $51.95 | — | never triggered |
| NOK | 2026-08-14 | 0.01 | TP +3.75% | $10.74 | 08-14T14:00 | STOP -8.06% |
| SNDK | 2026-08-14 | 0.08 | TP +3.79% | $1633.11 | 08-14T13:48 | TP +4.00% |
| COHR | 2026-08-17 | 0.02 | TP +3.79% | $343.58 | 08-17T13:49 | TP +4.00% |
| CVS | 2026-08-17 | 0.03 | pending | $97.38 | — | never triggered |
| EBAY | 2026-08-17 | 1.12 | TP +3.79% | $103.20 | 08-18T14:13 | TP +4.00% |
| ASX | 2026-08-18 | 1.95 | TP +3.78% | $36.75 | 08-19T13:30 | TP +3.99% |
| CIEN | 2026-08-18 | 1.28 | STOP -8.18% | $410.00 | 08-19T13:30 | STOP -8.00% |
| EBAY | 2026-08-18 | 0.87 | TP +3.79% | $105.17 | 08-19T13:36 | pending |
| META | 2026-08-18 | 1.78 | TP +3.79% | $555.80 | — | never triggered |
| NVO | 2026-08-18 | 0.78 | TP +3.80% | $46.73 | 08-19T13:39 | TP +4.00% |
| RKLB | 2026-08-18 | 0.65 | STOP -8.19% | $81.43 | — | never triggered |
| APH | 2026-08-19 | 0.01 | pending | $165.11 | — | never triggered |
| ARM | 2026-08-19 | 0.02 | STOP -8.18% | $265.37 | 08-19T13:33 | STOP -8.00% |
| ASX | 2026-08-19 | 0.05 | TP +3.80% | $37.31 | — | never triggered |
| AVGO | 2026-08-19 | 0.12 | pending | $380.06 | — | never triggered |
| CIEN | 2026-08-19 | 0.02 | STOP -8.18% | $415.14 | — | never triggered |
| EBAY | 2026-08-19 | 0.00 | pending | $105.94 | — | never triggered |
| INTC | 2026-08-19 | 0.30 | pending | $93.90 | — | never triggered |
| KEYS | 2026-08-19 | 0.33 | pending | $334.84 | — | never triggered |
| KLAC | 2026-08-19 | 0.01 | STOP -8.18% | $197.94 | — | never triggered |
| META | 2026-08-19 | 0.04 | TP +3.79% | $552.20 | 08-19T15:35 | TP +4.00% |
| MFG | 2026-08-19 | 1.61 | TP +3.74% | $10.36 | — | never triggered |
| MPWR | 2026-08-19 | 0.01 | STOP -8.18% | $1350.70 | — | never triggered |
| MRVL | 2026-08-19 | 0.12 | STOP -8.18% | $249.69 | 08-20T19:33 | STOP -8.00% |
| NBIS | 2026-08-19 | 0.35 | TP +3.79% | $220.02 | 08-19T14:29 | TP +4.00% |
| NUE | 2026-08-19 | 1.31 | TP +3.79% | $248.15 | 08-19T19:55 | pending |
| NVO | 2026-08-19 | 0.01 | TP +3.80% | $47.12 | 08-19T14:17 | pending |
| RKLB | 2026-08-19 | 0.03 | STOP -8.18% | $78.44 | — | never triggered |
| STM | 2026-08-19 | 0.01 | STOP -8.18% | $53.91 | — | never triggered |
| UNH | 2026-08-19 | 0.01 | pending | $402.28 | — | never triggered |
| APH | 2026-08-20 | 0.01 | TP +3.79% | $157.44 | 08-21T18:43 | pending |
| ARM | 2026-08-20 | 0.02 | TP +3.79% | $247.81 | 08-20T13:39 | TP +4.00% |
| ASX | 2026-08-20 | 0.01 | TP +3.80% | $37.70 | — | never triggered |
| AVGO | 2026-08-20 | 0.02 | pending | $371.82 | 08-21T13:32 | pending |
| BA | 2026-08-20 | 0.85 | pending | $220.75 | — | never triggered |
| CAT | 2026-08-20 | 0.00 | pending | $832.35 | 08-25T13:30 | pending |
| CIEN | 2026-08-20 | 0.00 | STOP -8.18% | $408.27 | — | never triggered |
| DAL | 2026-08-20 | 0.00 | STOP -5.79% | $83.75 | 08-24T13:30 | STOP -5.60% |
| EBAY | 2026-08-20 | 0.01 | pending | $105.47 | 08-24T14:02 | pending |
| GE | 2026-08-20 | 0.00 | STOP -5.35% | $361.06 | — | never triggered |
| INTC | 2026-08-20 | 0.04 | pending | $92.60 | 08-20T17:52 | STOP -7.99% |
| ITUB | 2026-08-20 | 0.77 | TP +3.79% | $7.44 | 08-21T15:35 | TP +3.99% |
| KEYS | 2026-08-20 | 0.00 | pending | $324.10 | — | never triggered |
| KLAC | 2026-08-20 | 0.01 | STOP -8.18% | $191.49 | — | never triggered |
| LRCX | 2026-08-20 | 0.00 | TP +3.79% | $312.40 | 08-21T13:30 | STOP -8.00% |
| META | 2026-08-20 | 0.01 | TP +3.79% | $556.35 | 08-24T15:29 | TP +4.00% |
| MFG | 2026-08-20 | 0.01 | TP +3.80% | $10.33 | — | never triggered |
| MPWR | 2026-08-20 | 0.01 | pending | $1335.93 | — | never triggered |
| MRVL | 2026-08-20 | 0.02 | TP +3.79% | $245.47 | 08-20T13:32 | STOP -8.00% |
| NBIS | 2026-08-20 | 0.02 | TP +3.79% | $223.71 | 08-21T13:30 | STOP -8.00% |
| NTES | 2026-08-20 | 0.20 | TP +3.80% | $124.33 | 08-21T13:30 | TP +4.00% |
| NUE | 2026-08-20 | 0.01 | TP +3.79% | $249.04 | 08-21T13:45 | pending |
| RKLB | 2026-08-20 | 0.00 | STOP -8.19% | $76.45 | — | never triggered |
| STM | 2026-08-20 | 0.00 | pending | $51.47 | — | never triggered |
| UNH | 2026-08-20 | 0.01 | TP +3.79% | $395.64 | 08-24T13:30 | pending |
| VALE | 2026-08-20 | 0.00 | TP +3.81% | $14.05 | 08-20T14:50 | TP +4.02% |
| VST | 2026-08-24 | 0.05 | TP +3.79% | $137.75 | 08-25T13:30 | TP +4.00% |
| FIX | 2026-08-25 | 0.02 | STOP -8.18% | $1678.93 | — | never triggered |
| HWM | 2026-08-25 | 0.05 | STOP -6.39% | $270.03 | 08-26T14:23 | STOP -6.20% |
| PWR | 2026-08-25 | 0.05 | pending | $643.33 | — | never triggered |
| UMC | 2026-08-25 | 0.03 | TP +3.79% | $20.15 | 08-28T13:30 | pending |
| CARR | 2026-08-26 | 1.63 | pending | $60.05 | — | never triggered |
| CDNS | 2026-08-26 | 0.00 | pending | $338.52 | 08-26T13:46 | STOP -6.46% |
| FIX | 2026-08-26 | 0.00 | TP +5.29% | $1593.53 | 08-26T14:02 | pending |
| HWM | 2026-08-26 | 0.01 | STOP -6.41% | $269.66 | 08-26T14:23 | STOP -6.23% |
| META | 2026-08-26 | 0.26 | pending | $577.34 | 08-26T14:46 | pending |
| NKE | 2026-08-26 | 0.85 | pending | $39.29 | 08-28T15:21 | pending |
| PWR | 2026-08-26 | 0.01 | pending | $615.61 | 08-26T18:55 | pending |
| UMC | 2026-08-26 | 0.00 | TP +5.29% | $20.00 | 08-28T13:30 | pending |
| URI | 2026-08-26 | 0.01 | STOP -5.94% | $1073.12 | 08-26T13:45 | STOP -5.75% |
| ARM | 2026-08-27 | 0.22 | STOP -8.19% | $267.99 | — | never triggered |
| CARR | 2026-08-27 | 0.02 | pending | $59.20 | — | never triggered |
| CDNS | 2026-08-27 | 0.04 | STOP -6.52% | $344.04 | 08-27T15:03 | STOP -6.34% |
| META | 2026-08-27 | 0.11 | pending | $593.67 | — | never triggered |
| NKE | 2026-08-27 | 0.06 | pending | $39.45 | 08-28T19:14 | pending |
| PDD | 2026-08-27 | 0.33 | pending | $85.63 | 08-28T13:39 | pending |
| URI | 2026-08-27 | 0.09 | pending | $1066.76 | — | never triggered |
| AEP | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $125.69 | — | never triggered |
| AMAT | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -8.18% | $487.50 | — | never triggered |
| APH | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $164.21 | — | never triggered |
| APP | 2026-08-28 | 0.38 | STOP -8.18% | $341.43 | — | never triggered |
| ARM | 2026-08-28 | 0.06 | STOP -8.18% | $255.51 | — | never triggered |
| ASML | 2026-08-28 | 1.37 | pending | $1740.04 | — | never triggered |
| ASX | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $39.47 | — | never triggered |
| AVGO | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $382.62 | — | never triggered |
| BA | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $214.07 | — | never triggered |
| C | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $135.99 | — | never triggered |
| CARR | 2026-08-28 | 0.02 | pending | $59.77 | — | never triggered |
| CAT | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $835.03 | — | never triggered |
| CDNS | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -6.64% | $353.16 | — | never triggered |
| CIEN | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -8.18% | $406.44 | — | never triggered |
| CMI | 2026-08-28 | 0.01 | pending | $584.60 | — | never triggered |
| COHR | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -8.19% | $295.55 | — | never triggered |
| CRH | 2026-08-28 | 0.03 | pending | $97.72 | — | never triggered |
| CRWD | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $233.37 | 08-31T13:34 | STOP -8.00% |
| CSCO | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $114.51 | — | never triggered |
| CVS | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $95.18 | 09-01T13:32 | pending |
| DAL | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -5.85% | $83.56 | — | never triggered |
| EBAY | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $105.11 | 08-28T17:58 | pending |
| ENB | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $51.37 | — | never triggered |
| FITB | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -3.87% | $56.20 | — | never triggered |
| FIX | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $1634.14 | — | never triggered |
| GE | 2026-08-28 | 0.02 | pending | $352.03 | — | never triggered |
| GEV | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $963.90 | — | never triggered |
| HWM | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -6.08% | $270.74 | — | never triggered |
| INTC | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $92.16 | 08-28T13:40 | pending |
| ISRG | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $376.00 | 08-31T19:48 | pending |
| ITUB | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $7.69 | 08-31T13:31 | pending |
| KEYS | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $329.21 | — | never triggered |
| KLAC | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $185.94 | — | never triggered |
| LHX | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $268.91 | 09-01T13:32 | pending |
| LRCX | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -8.19% | $324.39 | — | never triggered |
| META | 2026-08-28 | 0.08 | pending | $590.77 | — | never triggered |
| MFG | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $10.91 | — | never triggered |
| MPWR | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $1327.98 | — | never triggered |
| MRVL | 2026-08-28 | 0.45 | STOP -8.18% | $226.35 | 08-28T14:38 | STOP -8.00% |
| NBIS | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -8.18% | $217.68 | — | never triggered |
| NEE | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $84.52 | — | never triggered |
| NKE | 2026-08-28 | 0.07 | pending | $39.63 | 08-28T19:53 | pending |
| NOK | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $10.75 | — | never triggered |
| NTES | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $124.73 | — | never triggered |
| NUE | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $258.47 | — | never triggered |
| NVO | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $47.01 | — | never triggered |
| OKTA | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $175.78 | — | never triggered |
| PDD | 2026-08-28 | 0.16 | pending | $87.49 | — | never triggered |
| PWR | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $631.76 | — | never triggered |
| RCL | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | STOP -6.28% | $292.79 | — | never triggered |
| RKLB | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $68.07 | — | never triggered |
| SNDK | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | TP +4.79% | $1489.20 | 08-28T13:40 | TP +5.00% |
| STM | 2026-08-28 | 0.03 | pending | $51.38 | — | never triggered |
| SU | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $67.68 | 08-31T13:37 | pending |
| TDG | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $1216.33 | — | never triggered |
| TEL | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $207.59 | 09-01T19:25 | pending |
| TRP | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $63.56 | 09-01T13:31 | pending |
| UMC | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $20.99 | — | never triggered |
| UNH | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $404.18 | — | never triggered |
| URI | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $1063.75 | — | never triggered |
| VALE | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $15.60 | — | never triggered |
| VST | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $143.30 | — | never triggered |
| WMB | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 | pending | $75.91 | 09-01T13:31 | pending |
| TXN | 2026-08-29 | 0.00 | pending | $266.55 | — | never triggered |
| AON | 2026-08-31 | 1.54 | pending | $335.33 | — | never triggered |
| BA | 2026-08-31 | 0.66 | pending | $210.64 | — | never triggered |
| DLR | 2026-08-31 | 0.72 | pending | $189.14 | — | never triggered |
| ETN | 2026-08-31 | 0.80 | pending | $405.27 | — | never triggered |
| FITB | 2026-08-31 | 0.03 | pending | $55.23 | — | never triggered |
| FIX | 2026-08-31 | 0.82 | pending | $1549.10 | 09-01T15:02 | pending |
| GOOG | 2026-08-31 | 0.99 | pending | $338.90 | — | never triggered |
| GOOGL | 2026-08-31 | 0.69 | pending | $342.87 | — | never triggered |
| HON | 2026-08-31 | 0.80 | pending | $217.14 | — | never triggered |
| LLY | 2026-08-31 | 0.93 | pending | $1208.51 | — | never triggered |
| NEE | 2026-08-31 | 1.15 | pending | $84.23 | — | never triggered |
| PSA | 2026-08-31 | 1.33 | pending | $312.91 | — | never triggered |
| PWR | 2026-08-31 | 1.17 | pending | $619.80 | — | never triggered |
| SNDK | 2026-08-31 | 1.22 | TP +4.79% | $1555.89 | 09-01T14:48 | pending |
| TT | 2026-08-31 | 0.51 | pending | $455.99 | — | never triggered |
| TXN | 2026-08-31 | 0.02 | pending | $265.97 | — | never triggered |
| BA | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 | pending | $210.64 | — | never triggered |
| CAT | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 | pending | $801.33 | — | never triggered |
| GLW | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 | pending | $147.45 | — | never triggered |
| JCI | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 | pending | $141.24 | — | never triggered |
| LLY | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 | pending | $1208.51 | — | never triggered |

## Summary

- Clusters simulated: 192
- **Immediate entry**: 88 resolved — 48 TP / 40 stop (55% win), avg -1.21%
- **Confirmation entry**: trigger crossed on 73/192; of those, 42 resolved — 23 TP / 19 stop (55% win), avg -1.13%
- Losses DODGED by waiting (immediate stopped out, trigger never fired): 30
- Wins MISSED by waiting (immediate hit TP, trigger never fired): 8
- **Trailing trough trigger (+2% off the running low — dan's variant)**: fired on 153/192; of those, 73 resolved — 46 TP / 27 stop (63% win), avg +0.04%; dodged 7 / missed 1

## Trailing-arm reversal filters (classic bottom-confirmation metrics)

| variant | entered | resolved | win | avg | dodged | missed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| trail only (baseline) | 153 | 73 | 63% | +0.04% | 7 | 1 |
| + bounce participation: cross-day relVol ≥ 1 | 8 | 4 | 100% | +3.97% | 38 | 45 |
| + capitulation: trough-day relVol ≥ 1.5 | 14 | 9 | 100% | +4.10% | 37 | 42 |
| + reversal day: cross above prior session high | 49 | 22 | 59% | +0.07% | 34 | 33 |
| + trend context: MA50 slope > −1.5% | 111 | 46 | 70% | +1.02% | 24 | 14 |
| + signal relVol ≥ 0.1 | 43 | 29 | 72% | +0.90% | 31 | 27 |
| + MA50 slope AND signal relVol | 31 | 20 | 85% | +2.51% | 38 | 31 |
| + reversal day AND cross-day relVol ≥ 1 | 0 | 0 | –% | – | 40 | 48 |

## Relative volume at signal (session volume so far ÷ prior 20-day avg, IEX-internal ratio)

- Immediate WINNERS: n=48, avg 0.39, median 0.05
- Immediate LOSERS: n=40, avg 0.15, median 0.01
- Signals that later TRIGGERED the +2% confirmation: n=73, avg 0.26, median 0.02
- Signals that never triggered: n=119, avg 0.21, median 0.01
- Confirmation-entry winners: n=23, avg 0.42, median 0.20 · losers: n=19, avg 0.12, median 0.02

# Entry-time indicators vs simulated IMMEDIATE outcome

Indicators are as of the PRIOR session's close (buildSnapshot over daily bars strictly before the signal day — using the signal day's own completed bar would leak post-signal price into RSI/MAs). relVolume is the exception: measured live at the signal moment. "% change today"/gap/since-open fields therefore describe the prior session, not the signal day.

## unbought pool — immediate entry (88 trades)

| Feature | n | corr with P&L (r) | mean · winners | mean · losers | winner−loser |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA50 slope % | 88 | 0.329 | -0.85 | -1.95 | 1.10 |
| % from MA200 | 88 | 0.240 | 18.84 | 6.83 | 12.01 |
| Relative volume | 88 | 0.234 | 0.39 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| % from MA50 | 88 | 0.183 | -5.91 | -8.04 | 2.13 |
| % change today | 88 | 0.094 | -0.74 | -1.57 | 0.83 |
| RSI(2) | 88 | -0.042 | 35.45 | 36.71 | -1.26 |
| ATR % of price | 88 | -0.017 | 5.53 | 5.30 | 0.23 |
| RSI(14) | 88 | 0.007 | 44.58 | 44.11 | 0.47 |
| Gap from signal close | 0 | – | – | – | – |
| % since open at entry | 0 | – | – | – | – |
| Minutes since open at entry | 0 | – | – | – | – |

`r` ranges −1..+1 — closer to either end means the entry value and the trade's eventual P&L move together (or apart) fairly consistently across this sample; near 0 means this feature alone doesn't distinguish winners from losers here. `winner−loser` is the same idea in the feature's own units.

- **Market regime (SPY vs MA200):** bull 88 trades, 55% win, -1.21% avg · bear 0 trades, –% win, –% avg

Read the two arms on the same clusters, not against each other's different n. The sample is every signal this account did NOT buy (priced skips + never-priced signals from the newlyA log) — the bought ones live in the real journal, deliberately not re-simulated here.