# QSR real buy signals (no B+) — re-played with different exits

609 distinct triggers, real 15-min bars from each crossing, stop-first when a bar spans both levels. Money at **£100 per buy** (`--per-buy=`). "2nd half" = the later half of triggers by date — the check that a result isn't luck. ★ = the exit QSR uses now.

## no buy checks

| Exit | Settled | Won/Lost | Win % | Per buy | Net | Lost on losers | Worst dip | 2nd half: per buy (buys) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ target 8% · stop 3×ATR (max 10%) | 228 | 151/77 | 66% | **+2.65%** | +£605 | -£603 | -£191 | +7.61% (39) |
| target 8% · stop 8% | 228 | 149/79 | 65% | **+2.46%** | +£560 | -£632 | -£184 | +7.59% (39) |

## move ≥ 3% (now)

| Exit | Settled | Won/Lost | Win % | Per buy | Net | Lost on losers | Worst dip | 2nd half: per buy (buys) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ target 8% · stop 3×ATR (max 10%) | 159 | 136/23 | 86% | **+5.41%** | +£861 | -£227 | -£101 | +8.00% (29) |
| target 8% · stop 8% | 173 | 134/39 | 77% | **+4.39%** | +£760 | -£312 | -£64 | +7.47% (30) |

## move ≥ 3% + MA50 slope ≥ 0.25%

| Exit | Settled | Won/Lost | Win % | Per buy | Net | Lost on losers | Worst dip | 2nd half: per buy (buys) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ target 8% · stop 3×ATR (max 10%) | 34 | 20/14 | 59% | **+0.67%** | +£23 | -£137 | -£93 | +8.00% (8) |
| target 8% · stop 8% | 41 | 19/22 | 46% | **-0.59%** | -£24 | -£176 | -£88 | +6.22% (9) |

## Split exits — part sells at a target, the rest trails

Settled = both parts exited. **All buys** also counts the ones still open, valued at today's price — the fair comparison: leaving open trades out flatters tight exits, since a wide trail's winners are the ones still riding. Positive blended P&L counts as a win.

### no buy checks

| Exit | **All buys: per buy (n)** | All buys: net | Settled | Won/Lost | Settled: per buy | Lost on losers | Worst dip | 2nd half all buys: per buy (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 1% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.11%** (609) | +£69 | 254 | 178/76 | +1.49% | -£590 | -£233 | +0.45% (305) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 2% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.18%** (609) | +£112 | 249 | 173/76 | +1.59% | -£590 | -£253 | +0.44% (305) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 3% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.28%** (609) | +£169 | 243 | 167/76 | +1.67% | -£590 | -£296 | +0.50% (305) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 4% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.37%** (609) | +£226 | 217 | 141/76 | +1.21% | -£590 | -£320 | +0.45% (305) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 5% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.42%** (609) | +£255 | 196 | 120/76 | +0.68% | -£590 | -£257 | +0.46% (305) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 6% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.48%** (609) | +£294 | 183 | 107/76 | +0.17% | -£590 | -£274 | +0.52% (305) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 8% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.53%** (609) | +£323 | 137 | 61/76 | -2.03% | -£590 | -£365 | +0.54% (305) |
| ★ ≈ ISA today (75% at +5% · 25% trails 3% once +6%), but fixed 8% stop not ATR | **+0.21%** (609) | +£126 | 243 | 170/73 | +1.56% | -£584 | -£280 | +0.48% (305) |
| (compare) target 8% · stop 8%, no split | **+0.44%** (609) | +£270 | 228 | 149/79 | +2.46% | -£632 | -£184 | +0.48% (305) |
| (compare) live: target 5% · stop 2×ATR, no split | **+0.53%** (609) | +£320 | 228 | 151/77 | +2.65% | -£603 | -£191 | +0.50% (305) |

### move ≥ 3% (now)

| Exit | **All buys: per buy (n)** | All buys: net | Settled | Won/Lost | Settled: per buy | Lost on losers | Worst dip | 2nd half all buys: per buy (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 1% once +6% · stop 8% | **+1.68%** (272) | +£457 | 181 | 144/37 | +2.82% | -£284 | -£58 | +1.70% (99) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 2% once +6% · stop 8% | **+1.86%** (272) | +£506 | 180 | 143/37 | +3.08% | -£284 | -£62 | +1.69% (99) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 3% once +6% · stop 8% | **+2.11%** (272) | +£575 | 175 | 138/37 | +3.31% | -£284 | -£91 | +1.97% (99) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 4% once +6% · stop 8% | **+2.35%** (272) | +£640 | 157 | 120/37 | +3.12% | -£284 | -£88 | +1.91% (99) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 5% once +6% · stop 8% | **+2.48%** (272) | +£675 | 141 | 104/37 | +2.73% | -£284 | -£65 | +2.00% (99) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 6% once +6% · stop 8% | **+2.64%** (272) | +£719 | 130 | 93/37 | +2.29% | -£284 | -£88 | +2.19% (99) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 8% once +6% · stop 8% | **+2.77%** (272) | +£753 | 97 | 60/37 | +0.28% | -£284 | -£92 | +2.34% (99) |
| ★ ≈ ISA today (75% at +5% · 25% trails 3% once +6%), but fixed 8% stop not ATR | **+1.94%** (272) | +£528 | 175 | 140/35 | +3.06% | -£280 | -£89 | +1.91% (99) |
| (compare) target 8% · stop 8%, no split | **+2.60%** (272) | +£708 | 173 | 134/39 | +4.39% | -£312 | -£64 | +2.04% (99) |
| (compare) live: target 5% · stop 2×ATR, no split | **+2.75%** (272) | +£749 | 159 | 136/23 | +5.41% | -£227 | -£101 | +2.10% (99) |

### move ≥ 3% + MA50 slope ≥ 0.25%

| Exit | **All buys: per buy (n)** | All buys: net | Settled | Won/Lost | Settled: per buy | Lost on losers | Worst dip | 2nd half all buys: per buy (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 1% once +6% · stop 8% | **-0.34%** (83) | -£28 | 47 | 27/20 | +0.20% | -£148 | -£85 | +0.87% (40) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 2% once +6% · stop 8% | **-0.33%** (83) | -£27 | 47 | 27/20 | +0.22% | -£148 | -£85 | +0.72% (40) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 3% once +6% · stop 8% | **-0.40%** (83) | -£33 | 47 | 27/20 | +0.09% | -£148 | -£93 | +0.72% (40) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 4% once +6% · stop 8% | **-0.38%** (83) | -£32 | 40 | 20/20 | -0.81% | -£148 | -£108 | +0.61% (40) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 5% once +6% · stop 8% | **-0.48%** (83) | -£40 | 38 | 18/20 | -1.27% | -£148 | -£100 | +0.54% (40) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 6% once +6% · stop 8% | **-0.54%** (83) | -£45 | 38 | 18/20 | -1.40% | -£148 | -£87 | +0.41% (40) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 8% once +6% · stop 8% | **-0.47%** (83) | -£39 | 34 | 14/20 | -2.81% | -£148 | -£97 | +0.41% (40) |
| ★ ≈ ISA today (75% at +5% · 25% trails 3% once +6%), but fixed 8% stop not ATR | **-0.33%** (83) | -£28 | 47 | 29/18 | +0.21% | -£144 | -£87 | +0.77% (40) |
| (compare) target 8% · stop 8%, no split | **-0.54%** (83) | -£45 | 41 | 19/22 | -0.59% | -£176 | -£88 | +1.00% (40) |
| (compare) live: target 5% · stop 2×ATR, no split | **-0.31%** (83) | -£26 | 34 | 20/14 | +0.67% | -£137 | -£93 | +1.15% (40) |

## Buy rules on the current exit (+8% target on 50%, runner trails 5% from +8%, stop 3×ATR max 10%)

Per buy = average over every buy (open ones at today's price). First / last two weeks split at 2026-09-25. A rule worth adopting should beat "move ≥ 3% (now)" in BOTH periods.

| Rule | Buys | Per buy (whole month) | Net | Lost on losers | **First weeks: per buy** | **Last weeks: per buy** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no checks | 609 | +0.86% | +£522 | -£603 | +1.11% (304) | +0.61% (305) |
| move ≥ 3% (now) | 272 | +3.57% | +£972 | -£227 | +4.12% (173) | +2.62% (99) |
| move ≥ 3% + MA50 rising (slope ≥ 0) | 104 | +0.30% | +£32 | -£147 | -0.82% (57) | +1.67% (47) |
| move ≥ 3% + MA50 slope ≥ 0.25% | 83 | -0.23% | -£19 | -£137 | -1.43% (43) | +1.06% (40) |
| move ≥ 3% + price above MA200 | 151 | +5.46% | +£825 | -£50 | +6.89% (108) | +1.90% (43) |
| move ≥ 3% + MA200 rising | 172 | +5.03% | +£865 | -£78 | +6.39% (122) | +1.71% (50) |
| move ≥ 3% + MA50 rising + above MA200 | 50 | +2.25% | +£112 | -£10 | +2.82% (29) | +1.46% (21) |
| move ≥ 3% + above MA200 + MA200 rising | 131 | +6.19% | +£811 | -£40 | +7.54% (99) | +2.02% (32) |