# QSR B+ watch-only — re-played with different exits

312 distinct triggers, real 15-min bars from each crossing, stop-first when a bar spans both levels. Money at **£100 per buy** (`--per-buy=`). "2nd half" = the later half of triggers by date — the check that a result isn't luck. ★ = the exit QSR uses now.

## no buy checks

| Exit | Settled | Won/Lost | Win % | Per buy | Net | Lost on losers | Worst dip | 2nd half: per buy (buys) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| target 8% · stop 8% | 144 | 81/63 | 56% | **+1.00%** | +£144 | -£504 | -£184 | +2.32% (31) |
| target 5% · stop 8% | 184 | 126/58 | 68% | **+0.90%** | +£166 | -£464 | -£147 | +2.53% (58) |
| ★ target 5% · stop 2×ATR (max 8%) | 205 | 124/81 | 60% | **+0.38%** | +£78 | -£542 | -£144 | +1.57% (66) |

## move ≥ 3% (now)

| Exit | Settled | Won/Lost | Win % | Per buy | Net | Lost on losers | Worst dip | 2nd half: per buy (buys) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| target 8% · stop 8% | 119 | 69/50 | 58% | **+1.28%** | +£152 | -£400 | -£184 | +2.29% (28) |
| target 5% · stop 8% | 149 | 104/45 | 70% | **+1.07%** | +£160 | -£360 | -£155 | +2.55% (53) |
| ★ target 5% · stop 2×ATR (max 8%) | 158 | 102/56 | 65% | **+0.61%** | +£97 | -£413 | -£152 | +1.83% (58) |

## move ≥ 3% + MA50 slope ≥ 0.25%

| Exit | Settled | Won/Lost | Win % | Per buy | Net | Lost on losers | Worst dip | 2nd half: per buy (buys) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| target 5% · stop 8% | 57 | 39/18 | 68% | **+0.89%** | +£51 | -£144 | -£48 | +2.05% (22) |
| ★ target 5% · stop 2×ATR (max 8%) | 60 | 39/21 | 65% | **+0.65%** | +£39 | -£156 | -£53 | +1.69% (23) |
| target 8% · stop 8% | 47 | 25/22 | 53% | **+0.51%** | +£24 | -£176 | -£48 | +1.33% (12) |

## Split exits — part sells at a target, the rest trails

Settled = both parts exited. **All buys** also counts the ones still open, valued at today's price — the fair comparison: leaving open trades out flatters tight exits, since a wide trail's winners are the ones still riding. Positive blended P&L counts as a win.

### no buy checks

| Exit | **All buys: per buy (n)** | All buys: net | Settled | Won/Lost | Settled: per buy | Lost on losers | Worst dip | 2nd half all buys: per buy (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 1% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.34%** (312) | +£106 | 161 | 102/59 | +0.63% | -£436 | -£185 | +0.73% (156) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 2% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.31%** (312) | +£97 | 156 | 97/59 | +0.41% | -£436 | -£190 | +0.70% (156) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 3% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.44%** (312) | +£139 | 133 | 74/59 | -0.39% | -£436 | -£190 | +0.88% (156) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 4% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.38%** (312) | +£117 | 129 | 70/59 | -0.84% | -£436 | -£181 | +0.84% (156) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 5% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.51%** (312) | +£160 | 121 | 62/59 | -0.88% | -£436 | -£204 | +0.89% (156) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 6% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.47%** (312) | +£148 | 119 | 60/59 | -1.09% | -£436 | -£249 | +0.87% (156) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 8% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.70%** (312) | +£219 | 94 | 35/59 | -3.05% | -£436 | -£326 | +0.93% (156) |
| ★ ≈ ISA today (75% at +5% · 25% trails 3% once +6%), but fixed 8% stop not ATR | **+0.33%** (312) | +£104 | 133 | 75/58 | -0.50% | -£464 | -£195 | +0.77% (156) |
| (compare) target 8% · stop 8%, no split | **+0.60%** (312) | +£186 | 144 | 81/63 | +1.00% | -£504 | -£184 | +0.91% (156) |
| (compare) live: target 5% · stop 2×ATR, no split | **+0.17%** (312) | +£52 | 205 | 124/81 | +0.38% | -£542 | -£144 | +0.58% (156) |

### move ≥ 3% (now)

| Exit | **All buys: per buy (n)** | All buys: net | Settled | Won/Lost | Settled: per buy | Lost on losers | Worst dip | 2nd half all buys: per buy (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 1% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.60%** (222) | +£133 | 132 | 86/46 | +0.81% | -£350 | -£185 | +1.04% (119) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 2% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.57%** (222) | +£127 | 129 | 83/46 | +0.67% | -£350 | -£190 | +1.01% (119) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 3% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.75%** (222) | +£166 | 110 | 64/46 | -0.05% | -£350 | -£190 | +1.25% (119) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 4% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.67%** (222) | +£148 | 107 | 61/46 | -0.51% | -£350 | -£181 | +1.20% (119) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 5% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.85%** (222) | +£188 | 102 | 56/46 | -0.38% | -£350 | -£209 | +1.27% (119) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 6% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.81%** (222) | +£180 | 100 | 54/46 | -0.58% | -£350 | -£221 | +1.24% (119) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 8% once +6% · stop 8% | **+1.13%** (222) | +£252 | 78 | 32/46 | -2.63% | -£350 | -£281 | +1.32% (119) |
| ★ ≈ ISA today (75% at +5% · 25% trails 3% once +6%), but fixed 8% stop not ATR | **+0.68%** (222) | +£152 | 110 | 65/45 | -0.09% | -£360 | -£195 | +1.12% (119) |
| (compare) target 8% · stop 8%, no split | **+1.05%** (222) | +£233 | 119 | 69/50 | +1.28% | -£400 | -£184 | +1.30% (119) |
| (compare) live: target 5% · stop 2×ATR, no split | **+0.40%** (222) | +£88 | 158 | 102/56 | +0.61% | -£413 | -£152 | +0.89% (119) |

### move ≥ 3% + MA50 slope ≥ 0.25%

| Exit | **All buys: per buy (n)** | All buys: net | Settled | Won/Lost | Settled: per buy | Lost on losers | Worst dip | 2nd half all buys: per buy (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 1% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.39%** (73) | +£29 | 51 | 32/19 | +0.75% | -£140 | -£48 | +0.88% (35) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 2% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.44%** (73) | +£32 | 49 | 30/19 | +0.65% | -£140 | -£48 | +0.83% (35) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 3% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.50%** (73) | +£37 | 47 | 28/19 | +0.51% | -£140 | -£48 | +0.92% (35) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 4% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.30%** (73) | +£22 | 47 | 28/19 | +0.20% | -£140 | -£40 | +0.81% (35) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 5% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.31%** (73) | +£23 | 47 | 28/19 | +0.22% | -£140 | -£79 | +1.06% (35) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 6% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.28%** (73) | +£21 | 47 | 28/19 | +0.17% | -£140 | -£88 | +0.96% (35) |
| 50% sells at +4% · 50% trails 8% once +6% · stop 8% | **+0.75%** (73) | +£55 | 35 | 16/19 | -1.76% | -£140 | -£118 | +1.24% (35) |
| ★ ≈ ISA today (75% at +5% · 25% trails 3% once +6%), but fixed 8% stop not ATR | **+0.44%** (73) | +£32 | 47 | 29/18 | +0.36% | -£144 | -£48 | +0.95% (35) |
| (compare) target 8% · stop 8%, no split | **+0.61%** (73) | +£44 | 47 | 25/22 | +0.51% | -£176 | -£48 | +1.54% (35) |
| (compare) live: target 5% · stop 2×ATR, no split | **+0.25%** (73) | +£18 | 60 | 39/21 | +0.65% | -£156 | -£53 | +0.68% (35) |