# QSR B+ watch-only — judged (2026-09-02 → 2026-10-05)

Simulated buys use the same plan a real QSR buy would (+8% target, 3×ATR stop capped at 10%, stop-first) — sims recorded before a default change used the exit live at the time.

 One row per distinct signal across accounts. ~20 settled is the minimum before a group means anything (docs/METRICS.md).

**Money columns assume 100 (account currency) per buy** (`--per-buy=` to change): Net = total over settled trades; Gross lost = sum of every losing trade; Worst loss = the single worst; Worst drawdown = deepest dip of the running total, trades taken in the order they'd have closed.

## B+ vs real buy-tier signals

| Group | Signals | Settled | Won/Lost | Win rate | Win low95 | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy | PF | Net | Gross lost | Worst loss | Worst drawdown | Still running · avg mark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **B+ watch-only (all)** | 318 | 169 | 108/61 | 64% | 56% | +5.06% | -6.56% | **+0.86%** | 1.36 | **+146** | -400 | -8 | -138 | 109 · +0.48% |
| Buy-tier triggers NOT bought (simulated) | 300 | 140 | 91/49 | 65% | 57% | +5.16% | -5.37% | **+1.48%** | 1.79 | **+207** | -263 | -8 | -71 | 160 · +0.02% |

Real QSR closed buys since 2026-09-02: **516** buys, 198 winners (38%), mean **-1.51%** per buy (real exits, incl. trailing — not the same exit rules as the simulation).

## B+ by route

| Group | Signals | Settled | Won/Lost | Win rate | Win low95 | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy | PF | Net | Gross lost | Worst loss | Worst drawdown | Still running · avg mark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| decay | 105 | 41 | 24/17 | 59% | 43% | +5.13% | -4.97% | **+0.94%** | 1.46 | **+39** | -84 | -7 | -35 | 41 · +0.25% |
| fatB | 207 | 128 | 84/44 | 66% | 57% | +5.04% | -7.18% | **+0.84%** | 1.34 | **+107** | -316 | -8 | -132 | 66 · +0.65% |
| ma50 | 6 | 0 | 0/0 | – | – | – | – | **–** | – | **0** | 0 | – | 0 | 2 · +0.59% |
| **All B+** | 318 | 169 | 108/61 | 64% | 56% | +5.06% | -6.56% | **+0.86%** | 1.36 | **+146** | -400 | -8 | -138 | 109 · +0.48% |

## If the buy checks had been applied to B+ — what would have been bought, and how good

Replayed against each trigger's daily move / relVol / MA50 slope at the moment it triggered. A missing metric fails the check.

| Group | Signals | Settled | Won/Lost | Win rate | Win low95 | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy | PF | Net | Gross lost | Worst loss | Worst drawdown | Still running · avg mark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no checks (all triggers) | 318 | 169 | 108/61 | 64% | 56% | +5.06% | -6.56% | **+0.86%** | 1.36 | **+146** | -400 | -8 | -138 | 109 · +0.48% |
| daily move ≥ 3% (the live check) | 228 | 128 | 88/40 | 69% | 60% | +5.03% | -7.45% | **+1.13%** | 1.49 | **+145** | -298 | -8 | -146 | 73 · +0.68% |
| daily move ≥ 2.5% | 271 | 150 | 104/46 | 69% | 62% | +5.06% | -7.21% | **+1.29%** | 1.59 | **+194** | -332 | -8 | -138 | 90 · +0.85% |
| daily move ≥ 2% | 307 | 165 | 108/57 | 65% | 58% | +5.06% | -6.68% | **+1.00%** | 1.43 | **+166** | -380 | -8 | -138 | 106 · +0.52% |
| relVol ≥ 1 | 20 | 9 | 6/3 | 67% | 35% | +5.00% | -5.09% | **+1.64%** | 1.97 | **+15** | -15 | -6 | -11 | 5 · +0.72% |
| MA50 slope ≥ 0 | 113 | 61 | 45/16 | 74% | 62% | +5.07% | -7.35% | **+1.81%** | 1.94 | **+110** | -118 | -8 | -47 | 35 · -1.11% |
| move ≥ 3% + MA50 slope ≥ 0 | 92 | 56 | 42/14 | 75% | 62% | +5.07% | -7.66% | **+1.89%** | 1.99 | **+106** | -107 | -8 | -47 | 24 · -0.92% |
| move ≥ 3% + relVol ≥ 1 | 12 | 5 | 5/0 | 100% | 57% | +5.00% | – | **+5.00%** | – | **+25** | 0 | – | 0 | 3 · +3.36% |
| move ≥ 2% + MA50 slope ≥ 0 | 110 | 60 | 45/15 | 75% | 63% | +5.07% | -7.44% | **+1.94%** | 2.04 | **+116** | -112 | -8 | -47 | 33 · -1.07% |

## Same checks on buy-tier triggers that weren't bought (for comparison)

| Group | Signals | Settled | Won/Lost | Win rate | Win low95 | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy | PF | Net | Gross lost | Worst loss | Worst drawdown | Still running · avg mark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no checks (all triggers) | 300 | 140 | 91/49 | 65% | 57% | +5.16% | -5.37% | **+1.48%** | 1.79 | **+207** | -263 | -8 | -71 | 160 · +0.02% |
| daily move ≥ 3% (the live check) | 142 | 100 | 81/19 | 81% | 72% | +5.11% | -6.57% | **+2.89%** | 3.32 | **+289** | -125 | -8 | -24 | 42 · -0.17% |
| daily move ≥ 2.5% | 199 | 119 | 86/33 | 72% | 64% | +5.17% | -5.99% | **+2.08%** | 2.25 | **+247** | -198 | -8 | -34 | 80 · -0.14% |
| daily move ≥ 2% | 281 | 137 | 91/46 | 66% | 58% | +5.16% | -5.47% | **+1.59%** | 1.87 | **+218** | -252 | -8 | -71 | 144 · +0.06% |
| relVol ≥ 1 | 24 | 13 | 8/5 | 62% | 36% | +5.75% | -5.19% | **+1.54%** | 1.77 | **+20** | -26 | -6 | -11 | 11 · +1.10% |
| MA50 slope ≥ 0 | 100 | 39 | 20/19 | 51% | 36% | +5.00% | -5.67% | **-0.20%** | 0.93 | **-8** | -108 | -8 | -46 | 61 · +0.27% |
| move ≥ 3% + MA50 slope ≥ 0 | 45 | 29 | 19/10 | 66% | 47% | +5.00% | -6.27% | **+1.11%** | 1.51 | **+32** | -63 | -8 | -22 | 16 · -0.70% |
| move ≥ 3% + relVol ≥ 1 | 10 | 8 | 7/1 | 88% | 53% | +5.43% | -5.16% | **+4.10%** | 7.36 | **+33** | -5 | -5 | -5 | 2 · -0.52% |
| move ≥ 2% + MA50 slope ≥ 0 | 96 | 39 | 20/19 | 51% | 36% | +5.00% | -5.67% | **-0.20%** | 0.93 | **-8** | -108 | -8 | -46 | 57 · +0.32% |