# QSR B+ watch-only — judged (2026-09-02 → 2026-10-02)

Simulated buys use the same plan a real QSR buy would (+5% target, ATR-scaled stop, stop-first). One row per distinct signal across accounts. ~20 settled is the minimum before a group means anything (docs/METRICS.md).

**Money columns assume 100 (account currency) per buy** (`--per-buy=` to change): Net = total over settled trades; Gross lost = sum of every losing trade; Worst loss = the single worst; Worst drawdown = deepest dip of the running total, trades taken in the order they'd have closed.

## B+ vs real buy-tier signals

| Group | Signals | Settled | Won/Lost | Win rate | Win low95 | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy | PF | Net | Gross lost | Worst loss | Worst drawdown | Still running · avg mark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **B+ watch-only (all)** | 305 | 155 | 95/60 | 61% | 53% | +5.00% | -6.60% | **+0.51%** | 1.20 | **+79** | -396 | -8 | -138 | 110 · -0.22% |
| Buy-tier triggers NOT bought (simulated) | 188 | 132 | 86/46 | 65% | 57% | +5.00% | -5.30% | **+1.41%** | 1.76 | **+186** | -244 | -8 | -60 | 56 · -0.75% |

Real QSR closed buys since 2026-09-02: **486** buys, 188 winners (39%), mean **-1.48%** per buy (real exits, incl. trailing — not the same exit rules as the simulation).

## B+ by route

| Group | Signals | Settled | Won/Lost | Win rate | Win low95 | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy | PF | Net | Gross lost | Worst loss | Worst drawdown | Still running · avg mark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| decay | 103 | 38 | 22/16 | 58% | 42% | +5.00% | -5.00% | **+0.79%** | 1.37 | **+30** | -80 | -7 | -35 | 42 · -0.85% |
| fatB | 196 | 117 | 73/44 | 62% | 53% | +5.00% | -7.18% | **+0.42%** | 1.16 | **+49** | -316 | -8 | -132 | 66 · +0.31% |
| ma50 | 6 | 0 | 0/0 | – | – | – | – | **–** | – | **0** | 0 | – | 0 | 2 · -0.20% |
| **All B+** | 305 | 155 | 95/60 | 61% | 53% | +5.00% | -6.60% | **+0.51%** | 1.20 | **+79** | -396 | -8 | -138 | 110 · -0.22% |

## If the buy checks had been applied to B+ — what would have been bought, and how good

Replayed against each trigger's daily move / relVol / MA50 slope at the moment it triggered. A missing metric fails the check.

| Group | Signals | Settled | Won/Lost | Win rate | Win low95 | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy | PF | Net | Gross lost | Worst loss | Worst drawdown | Still running · avg mark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no checks (all triggers) | 305 | 155 | 95/60 | 61% | 53% | +5.00% | -6.60% | **+0.51%** | 1.20 | **+79** | -396 | -8 | -138 | 110 · -0.22% |
| daily move ≥ 3% (the live check) | 215 | 117 | 77/40 | 66% | 57% | +5.00% | -7.45% | **+0.74%** | 1.29 | **+87** | -298 | -8 | -146 | 71 · -0.07% |
| daily move ≥ 2.5% | 258 | 137 | 91/46 | 66% | 58% | +5.00% | -7.21% | **+0.90%** | 1.37 | **+123** | -332 | -8 | -138 | 90 · +0.03% |
| daily move ≥ 2% | 294 | 151 | 95/56 | 63% | 55% | +5.00% | -6.72% | **+0.65%** | 1.26 | **+99** | -376 | -8 | -138 | 107 · -0.18% |
| relVol ≥ 1 | 20 | 9 | 6/3 | 67% | 35% | +5.00% | -5.09% | **+1.64%** | 1.97 | **+15** | -15 | -6 | -11 | 5 · -0.71% |
| MA50 slope ≥ 0 | 108 | 54 | 39/15 | 72% | 59% | +5.00% | -7.55% | **+1.51%** | 1.72 | **+82** | -113 | -8 | -47 | 37 · -1.16% |
| move ≥ 3% + MA50 slope ≥ 0 | 87 | 50 | 36/14 | 72% | 58% | +5.00% | -7.66% | **+1.46%** | 1.68 | **+73** | -107 | -8 | -47 | 25 · -1.10% |
| move ≥ 3% + relVol ≥ 1 | 12 | 5 | 5/0 | 100% | 57% | +5.00% | – | **+5.00%** | – | **+25** | 0 | – | 0 | 3 · -1.09% |
| move ≥ 2% + MA50 slope ≥ 0 | 105 | 53 | 39/14 | 74% | 60% | +5.00% | -7.66% | **+1.66%** | 1.82 | **+88** | -107 | -8 | -47 | 35 · -1.11% |

## Same checks on buy-tier triggers that weren't bought (for comparison)

| Group | Signals | Settled | Won/Lost | Win rate | Win low95 | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy | PF | Net | Gross lost | Worst loss | Worst drawdown | Still running · avg mark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no checks (all triggers) | 188 | 132 | 86/46 | 65% | 57% | +5.00% | -5.30% | **+1.41%** | 1.76 | **+186** | -244 | -8 | -60 | 56 · -0.75% |
| daily move ≥ 3% (the live check) | 118 | 96 | 79/17 | 82% | 73% | +5.00% | -6.51% | **+2.96%** | 3.57 | **+284** | -111 | -8 | -24 | 22 · -1.77% |
| daily move ≥ 2.5% | 146 | 111 | 81/30 | 73% | 64% | +5.00% | -5.94% | **+2.04%** | 2.27 | **+227** | -178 | -8 | -34 | 35 · -0.94% |
| daily move ≥ 2% | 183 | 129 | 86/43 | 67% | 58% | +5.00% | -5.40% | **+1.53%** | 1.85 | **+198** | -232 | -8 | -60 | 54 · -0.76% |
| relVol ≥ 1 | 30 | 12 | 7/5 | 58% | 32% | +5.00% | -5.19% | **+0.75%** | 1.35 | **+9** | -26 | -6 | -11 | 18 · -0.01% |
| MA50 slope ≥ 0 | 59 | 38 | 21/17 | 55% | 40% | +5.00% | -5.55% | **+0.28%** | 1.11 | **+11** | -94 | -7 | -44 | 21 · -0.51% |
| move ≥ 3% + MA50 slope ≥ 0 | 38 | 29 | 20/9 | 69% | 51% | +5.00% | -6.08% | **+1.56%** | 1.83 | **+45** | -55 | -7 | -22 | 9 · -1.55% |
| move ≥ 3% + relVol ≥ 1 | 11 | 8 | 7/1 | 88% | 53% | +5.00% | -5.16% | **+3.73%** | 6.78 | **+30** | -5 | -5 | -5 | 3 · -4.10% |
| move ≥ 2% + MA50 slope ≥ 0 | 59 | 38 | 21/17 | 55% | 40% | +5.00% | -5.55% | **+0.28%** | 1.11 | **+11** | -94 | -7 | -44 | 21 · -0.51% |