# Our exit rules applied to the screener's MOCK entries

**SIMULATED DATA — NOT REAL MONEY.** Source: yahoo-screener /api/mock-orders. The mock book has a resting +5% limit and NO stop, so its own record (71 closed pairs, 100% winners) is meaningless. These are its ENTRIES scored under OUR exit rules.

145 entries with >= 5 forward session(s), from 2026-05-31 onward. Stop checked BEFORE target on every bar (pessimistic).

Live setting today: stopAtrMult 2, maxStopPct 8, hardSellPct 5.5, maxHoldDays null (none).

| Stop (xATR) | Target | Time stop | Sym-days | %/trade | 95% CI | %/day | Target hit | Stopped | Timed out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5x | 4% | 3d | 89 | -0.90% | -1.72 … -0.08 | -0.251% | 36 | 52 | 57 |
| 1.5x | 4% | 5d | 89 | -1.14% | -2.02 … -0.25 | -0.277% | 37 | 65 | 43 |
| 1.5x | 4% | 10d | 89 | -1.24% | -2.13 … -0.35 | -0.288% | 38 | 68 | 3 |
| 1.5x | 4% | none | 89 | -1.23% | -2.12 … -0.34 | -0.286% | 38 | 68 | 0 |
| 1.5x | 5% | 3d | 89 | -0.75% | -1.62 … +0.12 | -0.157% | 28 | 53 | 64 |
| 1.5x | 5% | 5d | 89 | -0.91% | -1.86 … +0.04 | -0.185% | 34 | 66 | 45 |
| 1.5x | 5% | 10d | 89 | -1.00% | -1.96 … -0.04 | -0.194% | 35 | 69 | 3 |
| 1.5x | 5% | none | 89 | -0.99% | -1.95 … -0.03 | -0.193% | 35 | 69 | 0 |
| 1.5x | 5.5% | 3d | 89 | -0.94% | -1.80 … -0.09 | -0.229% | 20 | 53 | 72 |
| 1.5x | 5.5% | 5d | 89 | -1.17% | -2.12 … -0.23 | -0.270% | 24 | 69 | 52 |
| 1.5x | 5.5% | 10d | 89 | -1.27% | -2.24 … -0.30 | -0.276% | 27 | 73 | 3 |
| 1.5x | 5.5% | none | 89 | -1.25% | -2.23 … -0.28 | -0.275% | 27 | 73 | 0 |
| 1.5x | 6% | 3d | 89 | -0.99% | -1.86 … -0.12 | -0.250% | 18 | 53 | 74 |
| 1.5x | 6% | 5d | 89 | -1.27% | -2.24 … -0.31 | -0.301% | 20 | 70 | 55 |
| 1.5x | 6% | 10d | 89 | -1.49% | -2.47 … -0.50 | -0.325% | 23 | 75 | 3 |
| 1.5x | 6% | none | 89 | -1.48% | -2.46 … -0.49 | -0.324% | 23 | 75 | 0 |
| 1.5x | 8% | 3d | 89 | -1.17% | -2.05 … -0.28 | -0.416% | 8 | 53 | 84 |
| 1.5x | 8% | 5d | 89 | -1.29% | -2.30 … -0.28 | -0.443% | 12 | 70 | 63 |
| 1.5x | 8% | 10d | 89 | -1.54% | -2.59 … -0.49 | -0.481% | 16 | 76 | 4 |
| 1.5x | 8% | none | 89 | -1.59% | -2.64 … -0.54 | -0.485% | 16 | 77 | 0 |
| 2x | 4% | 3d | 89 | -1.02% | -1.88 … -0.17 | -0.196% | 36 | 38 | 71 |
| 2x | 4% | 5d | 89 | -1.11% | -2.02 … -0.20 | -0.149% | 37 | 44 | 64 |
| 2x | 4% | 10d | 89 | -1.29% | -2.22 … -0.36 | -0.154% | 38 | 53 | 6 |
| 2x | 4% | none | 89 | -1.31% | -2.25 … -0.37 | -0.154% | 38 | 53 | 0 |
| 2x | 5% | 3d | 89 | -0.87% | -1.77 … +0.03 | -0.103% | 28 | 39 | 78 |
| 2x | 5% | 5d | 89 | -0.88% | -1.85 … +0.09 | -0.057% | 34 | 45 | 66 |
| 2x | 5% | 10d | 89 | -1.05% | -2.05 … -0.05 | -0.060% | 35 | 54 | 6 |
| 2x | 5% | none | 89 | -1.07% | -2.07 … -0.07 | -0.061% | 35 | 54 | 0 |
| 2x | 5.5% | 3d | 89 | -1.07% | -1.95 … -0.18 | -0.174% | 20 | 39 | 86 |
| 2x | 5.5% | 5d | 89 | -1.15% | -2.12 … -0.18 | -0.140% | 24 | 47 | 74 |
| 2x | 5.5% | 10d | 89 | -1.33% | -2.34 … -0.32 | -0.140% | 27 | 58 | 6 |
| 2x ← **live** | 5.5% | none | 89 | -1.35% | -2.36 … -0.33 | -0.141% | 27 | 58 | 0 |
| 2x | 6% | 3d | 89 | -1.11% | -2.01 … -0.21 | -0.195% | 18 | 39 | 88 |
| 2x | 6% | 5d | 89 | -1.25% | -2.23 … -0.26 | -0.171% | 20 | 48 | 77 |
| 2x | 6% | 10d | 89 | -1.54% | -2.57 … -0.52 | -0.187% | 23 | 59 | 7 |
| 2x | 6% | none | 89 | -1.59% | -2.62 … -0.55 | -0.189% | 23 | 60 | 0 |
| 2x | 8% | 3d | 89 | -1.29% | -2.20 … -0.38 | -0.361% | 8 | 39 | 98 |
| 2x | 8% | 5d | 89 | -1.27% | -2.30 … -0.24 | -0.313% | 12 | 48 | 85 |
| 2x | 8% | 10d | 89 | -1.59% | -2.68 … -0.51 | -0.342% | 16 | 60 | 8 |
| 2x | 8% | none | 89 | -1.72% | -2.81 … -0.62 | -0.351% | 16 | 62 | 0 |
| 2.5x | 4% | 3d | 89 | -0.87% | -1.71 … -0.04 | -0.074% | 36 | 21 | 88 |
| 2.5x | 4% | 5d | 89 | -0.82% | -1.70 … +0.06 | +0.041% | 37 | 26 | 82 |
| 2.5x | 4% | 10d | 89 | -0.96% | -1.88 … -0.03 | +0.057% | 40 | 30 | 11 |
| 2.5x | 4% | none | 89 | -0.93% | -1.87 … +0.01 | +0.060% | 42 | 32 | 0 |
| 2.5x | 5% | 3d | 89 | -0.72% | -1.60 … +0.15 | +0.019% | 28 | 22 | 95 |
| 2.5x | 5% | 5d | 89 | -0.59% | -1.53 … +0.35 | +0.133% | 34 | 27 | 84 |
| 2.5x | 5% | 10d | 89 | -0.75% | -1.73 … +0.24 | +0.147% | 35 | 31 | 13 |
| 2.5x | 5% | none | 89 | -0.95% | -1.97 … +0.06 | +0.137% | 35 | 37 | 0 |
| 2.5x | 5.5% | 3d | 89 | -0.92% | -1.79 … -0.05 | -0.052% | 20 | 22 | 103 |
| 2.5x | 5.5% | 5d | 89 | -0.86% | -1.80 … +0.09 | +0.050% | 24 | 29 | 92 |
| 2.5x | 5.5% | 10d | 89 | -1.04% | -2.04 … -0.04 | +0.065% | 27 | 35 | 13 |
| 2.5x | 5.5% | none | 89 | -1.25% | -2.28 … -0.22 | +0.055% | 27 | 41 | 0 |
| 2.5x | 6% | 3d | 89 | -0.97% | -1.85 … -0.08 | -0.073% | 18 | 22 | 105 |
| 2.5x | 6% | 5d | 89 | -0.96% | -1.92 … +0.01 | +0.019% | 20 | 30 | 95 |
| 2.5x | 6% | 10d | 89 | -1.25% | -2.27 … -0.24 | +0.018% | 23 | 36 | 14 |
| 2.5x | 6% | none | 89 | -1.50% | -2.55 … -0.45 | +0.010% | 23 | 43 | 0 |
| 2.5x | 8% | 3d | 89 | -1.14% | -2.04 … -0.25 | -0.239% | 8 | 22 | 115 |
| 2.5x | 8% | 5d | 89 | -0.98% | -1.99 … +0.03 | -0.123% | 12 | 30 | 103 |
| 2.5x | 8% | 10d | 89 | -1.31% | -2.39 … -0.22 | -0.137% | 16 | 37 | 15 |
| 2.5x | 8% | none | 89 | -1.48% | -2.61 … -0.35 | -0.145% | 17 | 44 | 0 |
| 3x | 4% | 3d | 89 | -0.87% | -1.71 … -0.04 | -0.074% | 36 | 21 | 88 |
| 3x | 4% | 5d | 89 | -0.81% | -1.69 … +0.07 | +0.044% | 37 | 25 | 83 |
| 3x | 4% | 10d | 89 | -0.91% | -1.83 … +0.01 | +0.065% | 40 | 27 | 13 |
| 3x | 4% | none | 89 | -0.97% | -1.93 … -0.02 | +0.068% | 42 | 31 | 0 |
| 3x | 5% | 3d | 89 | -0.72% | -1.60 … +0.15 | +0.019% | 28 | 22 | 95 |
| 3x | 5% | 5d | 89 | -0.58% | -1.52 … +0.36 | +0.136% | 34 | 26 | 85 |
| 3x | 5% | 10d | 89 | -0.70% | -1.67 … +0.28 | +0.155% | 35 | 28 | 15 |
| 3x | 5% | none | 89 | -1.00% | -2.03 … +0.02 | +0.144% | 35 | 36 | 0 |
| 3x | 5.5% | 3d | 89 | -0.92% | -1.79 … -0.05 | -0.052% | 20 | 22 | 103 |
| 3x | 5.5% | 5d | 89 | -0.85% | -1.79 … +0.10 | +0.053% | 24 | 28 | 93 |
| 3x | 5.5% | 10d | 89 | -1.01% | -2.01 … -0.01 | +0.073% | 27 | 32 | 15 |
| 3x | 5.5% | none | 89 | -1.31% | -2.36 … -0.27 | +0.062% | 27 | 40 | 0 |
| 3x | 6% | 3d | 89 | -0.97% | -1.85 … -0.08 | -0.073% | 18 | 22 | 105 |
| 3x | 6% | 5d | 89 | -0.95% | -1.91 … +0.02 | +0.022% | 20 | 29 | 96 |
| 3x | 6% | 10d | 89 | -1.22% | -2.24 … -0.20 | +0.026% | 23 | 33 | 16 |
| 3x | 6% | none | 89 | -1.58% | -2.64 … -0.51 | +0.016% | 23 | 42 | 0 |
| 3x | 8% | 3d | 89 | -1.14% | -2.04 … -0.25 | -0.239% | 8 | 22 | 115 |
| 3x | 8% | 5d | 89 | -0.97% | -1.98 … +0.04 | -0.121% | 12 | 29 | 104 |
| 3x | 8% | 10d | 89 | -1.27% | -2.35 … -0.19 | -0.130% | 16 | 34 | 17 |
| 3x | 8% | none | 89 | -1.55% | -2.70 … -0.40 | -0.139% | 17 | 43 | 0 |

- Best **%/trade**: `3x/5%/5d` at -0.58%
- Best **%/day**: `3x/5%/10d` at +0.155%/day
- Our live setting: `2x/5.5%/none` at -1.35%/trade, -0.141%/day
- Settings whose 95% CI excludes zero: **58 of 80**

**Read this before acting.** 4x5x4 = 80 combinations were swept, so at p=0.05 roughly 4 would clear a significance bar by chance alone. Picking the best cell of 80 is in-sample optimisation, which docs/METRICS.md rule #4 forbids acting on directly. Most mock buys are late-August so forward bars are scarce — a time stop beyond about a week cannot be evaluated here at all, and 79% of the entries fall on four consecutive sessions.