# orb-v1 2x leverage backtest — 2026-07-31

33 real closed "orb-v1" trades (data/trades.jsonl), each re-priced as if sized 2x on margin instead of 1x cash — same entry/exit prices and dates, double the shares, minus margin interest on the financed half at 6.25%/yr (Alpaca's standard non-Elite rate) for the trade's actual holding period. Read-only — no orders, no journal write.

> ⚠️ **Caveat**: interest is computed per-trade in isolation, not against one shared portfolio margin balance — a strategy with overlapping open positions would in reality track a single running debit balance across all open leveraged positions at once, which is generally CHEAPER than summing each trade's interest independently (overlapping positions share the same borrowed dollars rather than each demanding their own). Treat the interest total here as an upper bound, not an exact figure. Also ignores any margin-call/liquidation risk that 2x sizing would introduce on the losers.

## Summary

- Actual (1x) total P&L: **-$175.68**
- Extra gained from 2x sizing alone (before interest): **-$175.68**
- Margin interest paid (lost): **-$2.61**
- Levered (2x) net total P&L: **-$353.97**
- Net difference vs actual: **-$178.29** (leverage would have made LESS)
- Interest consumed **1.5%** of the extra gained from sizing

## Per-trade detail

| Symbol | Exit date | Hold (d) | Actual P&L | Levered gross | Interest | Levered net | Δ vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 2026-07-20 | 0.01 | -$33.42 | -$66.84 | $0.00 | -$66.84 | -$33.42 |
| ANET | 2026-07-20 | 0.02 | -$33.15 | -$66.30 | $0.01 | -$66.31 | -$33.16 |
| ANET | 2026-07-20 | 0.02 | -$42.87 | -$85.74 | $0.01 | -$85.75 | -$42.88 |
| XOM | 2026-07-20 | 0.24 | $15.79 | $31.58 | $0.12 | $31.46 | $15.67 |
| UNH | 2026-07-21 | 0.26 | $44.10 | $88.20 | $0.11 | $88.09 | $43.99 |
| XOM | 2026-07-21 | 0.26 | $20.52 | $41.04 | $0.13 | $40.91 | $20.39 |
| COIN | 2026-07-22 | 0.00 | -$25.57 | -$51.14 | $0.00 | -$51.14 | -$25.57 |
| NVDA | 2026-07-22 | 0.05 | $30.00 | $60.00 | $0.02 | $59.98 | $29.98 |
| INTC | 2026-07-22 | 0.26 | -$53.64 | -$107.28 | $0.11 | -$107.39 | -$53.75 |
| QQQ | 2026-07-22 | 0.26 | -$1.63 | -$3.26 | $0.09 | -$3.35 | -$1.72 |
| ANET | 2026-07-22 | 0.26 | $5.04 | $10.08 | $0.11 | $9.97 | $4.93 |
| MARA | 2026-07-23 | 0.05 | -$76.53 | -$153.06 | $0.02 | -$153.08 | -$76.55 |
| ANET | 2026-07-23 | 0.04 | -$46.54 | -$93.08 | $0.02 | -$93.10 | -$46.56 |
| SMCI | 2026-07-23 | 0.05 | -$75.46 | -$150.92 | $0.02 | -$150.94 | -$75.48 |
| XOM | 2026-07-23 | 0.22 | -$5.98 | -$11.96 | $0.09 | -$12.05 | -$6.07 |
| JPM | 2026-07-24 | 0.00 | -$5.67 | -$11.34 | $0.00 | -$11.34 | -$5.67 |
| GOOGL | 2026-07-24 | 0.03 | -$23.95 | -$47.90 | $0.01 | -$47.91 | -$23.96 |
| DIS | 2026-07-24 | 0.07 | $31.17 | $62.34 | $0.03 | $62.31 | $31.14 |
| XOM | 2026-07-24 | 0.06 | -$13.07 | -$26.14 | $0.02 | -$26.16 | -$13.09 |
| AAPL | 2026-07-24 | 0.08 | $42.42 | $84.84 | $0.03 | $84.81 | $42.39 |
| JPM | 2026-07-27 | 2.95 | $46.77 | $93.54 | $1.24 | $92.30 | $45.53 |
| XOM | 2026-07-27 | 0.03 | -$15.92 | -$31.84 | $0.01 | -$31.85 | -$15.93 |
| CRM | 2026-07-27 | 0.05 | $41.66 | $83.32 | $0.02 | $83.30 | $41.64 |
| SHOP | 2026-07-27 | 0.25 | $77.72 | $155.44 | $0.11 | $155.33 | $77.61 |
| QCOM | 2026-07-28 | 0.00 | -$7.50 | -$15.00 | $0.00 | -$15.00 | -$7.50 |
| QCOM | 2026-07-28 | 0.08 | -$22.68 | -$45.36 | $0.03 | -$45.39 | -$22.71 |
| CRM | 2026-07-28 | 0.25 | $5.67 | $11.34 | $0.10 | $11.24 | $5.57 |
| CRM | 2026-07-29 | 0.02 | -$26.14 | -$52.28 | $0.01 | -$52.29 | -$26.15 |
| SHOP | 2026-07-29 | 0.03 | -$21.03 | -$42.06 | $0.01 | -$42.07 | -$21.04 |
| DIS | 2026-07-29 | 0.10 | -$12.25 | -$24.50 | $0.04 | -$24.54 | -$12.29 |
| CRM | 2026-07-29 | 0.14 | $54.21 | $108.42 | $0.06 | $108.36 | $54.15 |
| COIN | 2026-07-30 | 0.01 | -$32.21 | -$64.42 | $0.01 | -$64.43 | -$32.22 |
| JPM | 2026-07-30 | 0.03 | -$15.54 | -$31.08 | $0.01 | -$31.09 | -$15.55 |