# crypto-trend-v1: break-even stop vs trail (2026-10-04)

Daily bars, 730 days, 18 coins, every signal at a fixed size, same entries/ATR stop/10-day-low exit as live. Re-entry on the next fresh 20-day high is modelled. No fees.

| exit rule | trades | win | avg / trade | profit factor | avg / trade ex top-3 coins | last 183d avg | reached +10% then ended ≤ 0 | exits at break-even |
|---|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| no trail, no break-even | 226 | 38% | **+3.14%** | 1.62 | +0.99% | +2.70% | 14 of 87 | 0 |
| live trail (arm 15%, 5% widening) | 264 | 39% | **+1.49%** | 1.29 | -0.20% | +2.34% | 9 of 100 | 0 |
| break-even at +5% (no trail) | 256 | 21% | **+1.92%** | 1.48 | -0.18% | +1.92% | 29 of 80 | 88 |
| break-even at +8% (no trail) | 240 | 27% | **+2.47%** | 1.55 | +0.34% | +2.27% | 31 of 85 | 51 |
| break-even at +10% (no trail) | 236 | 30% | **+2.57%** | 1.54 | +0.43% | +2.40% | 31 of 89 | 31 |
| break-even at +12% (no trail) | 231 | 33% | **+3.06%** | 1.64 | +0.97% | +2.70% | 23 of 88 | 20 |
| break-even at +15% (no trail) | 229 | 34% | **+3.04%** | 1.62 | +0.93% | +2.47% | 21 of 88 | 12 |
| break-even at +20% (no trail) | 226 | 36% | **+3.13%** | 1.62 | +0.98% | +2.67% | 17 of 87 | 3 |
| break-even at +10% + live trail | 268 | 35% | **+1.25%** | 1.25 | -0.46% | +2.36% | 19 of 100 | 19 |

Read it: the break-even rows trade a little of the big-runner upside for not letting a +10% trade become a loss. `ex top-3 coins` shows how much each row depends on a few huge winners. In-sample — trust the size of the gaps more than the single best row.