# AI picks & shovels pies (Trading 212)

Three long-term, buy-and-hold pies holding the suppliers to the AI build-out rather than the AI companies themselves. Planned 2026-10-01, created 2026-10-02 in **both** T212 accounts (T212 ISA and T212 INV), documented here 2026-10-04.

**These are not a strategy.** No script in this repo trades, funds, or rebalances them — they are funded by hand in the T212 app. The only code involved is the one-off creator, `src/scripts/t212CreateAiPies.ts` (#426), which is the source of truth for the weights below.

Informational record of a personal plan, not financial advice.

## Weights

### Split of the AI money across the three pies

| Pie | Share | Role |
|---|---|---|
| AI Memory | 35% | Biggest upside, most cyclical |
| AI Neocloud | 20% | Highest risk, sized smallest |
| AI Grid & Copper | 45% | The steadier part |

Stance: heavier in "Group A" (memory + neoclouds = 55%), gentler in "Group B" (grid + copper = 45%). Group A would feel an AI-spending slowdown first, Group B last.

### Pie 1 — AI Memory

| Holding | Market ticker | T212 ticker | Weight in pie | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Hynix (US ADR) | SKHY | `SKHY_US_EQ` | 35% | 12.25% |
| Micron | MU | `MU_US_EQ` | 30% | 10.50% |
| Seagate | STX | `STX_US_EQ` | 20% | 7.00% |
| Western Digital | WDC | `WDC_US_EQ` | 15% | 5.25% |

### Pie 2 — AI Neocloud

| Holding | Market ticker | T212 ticker | Weight in pie | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebius | NBIS | `YNDX_US_EQ` | 30% | 6.00% |
| IREN | IREN | `IREN_US_EQ` | 20% | 4.00% |
| TeraWulf | WULF | `IKNX_US_EQ` | 20% | 4.00% |
| Hut 8 | HUT | `HUTMF_US_EQ` | 15% | 3.00% |
| CoreWeave | CRWV | `CRWV_US_EQ` | 15% | 3.00% |

### Pie 3 — AI Grid & Copper

| Holding | Market ticker | T212 ticker | Weight in pie | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Trust Smart Grid Infrastructure UCITS ETF (Acc) | FGRD | `FGRDl_EQ` | 30% | 13.50% |
| Global X Copper Miners UCITS ETF (Acc) | COPG | `COPGl_EQ` | 25% | 11.25% |
| Quanta Services | PWR | `PWR_US_EQ` | 15% | 6.75% |
| Prysmian (US ADR) | PRY / PRYMY | `PRYMY_US_EQ` | 10% | 4.50% |
| Southern Copper | SCCO | `SCCO_US_EQ` | 10% | 4.50% |
| nVent | NVT | `NVT_US_EQ` | 10% | 4.50% |

Ticker traps (same family as the BAM/BN trap in `t212TickerMap.ts`): Nebius lists under its old Yandex ticker, TeraWulf under the IKONICS shell it merged into, Hut 8 under `HUTMF`, and T212 has no Milan line for Prysmian so the pie holds the US ADR. All four were confirmed by ISIN / company name in the creator's dry run.

## Where the pies live

| Pie | T212 INV (account 35431462) | T212 ISA (account 50879384) |
|---|---|---|
| AI Memory | #9898585 | #9898609 |
| AI Neocloud | #9898587 | #9898610 |
| AI Grid & Copper | #9898589 | #9898612 |

Created empty, dividends set to reinvest. Run logs: `data/ai-pies-invest-live.log`, `data/ai-pies-isa-live.log`.

The ISA's existing "Bucket QSR" pie (#9679327) is unrelated. `t212-invest-reserve` only ever touches the pie id in its config (`reservePieId`), so it ignores these.

## Why these three

Hyperscaler capex is guided to roughly $730B for 2026, with consensus near $935B for 2027. That money lands on a chain of suppliers; the pies take three points on it:

- **Memory** — the tightest bottleneck. 2027 DRAM/HBM capacity is reported sold out, with customers receiving 60–70% of requested volume.
- **Neoclouds** — companies renting out AI compute the hyperscalers cannot build fast enough, on long contracts.
- **Grid & copper** — the physical constraint: power equipment, grid construction, cable, and the copper all of it needs.

## Strengths and weaknesses

### AI Memory
- **For:** tightest shortage in the chain; pricing power (HBM contract prices forecast +70–140% in 2027); established, profitable companies.
- **Against:** the most cyclical sector here (all four fell 42–52% in 2022); up three- to six-fold in the 12 months before creation; new supply due H2 2027; the four move together, so it is one bet, not four.

### AI Neocloud
- **For:** most direct exposure to the compute shortage; large long-dated contracts (CoreWeave ~$104B backlog, TeraWulf's Google-backstopped Anthropic campus); four of five were already 35–59% below their highs at creation.
- **Against:** loss-making and debt-funded (CoreWeave ~$640M interest a quarter); three of them fell 95–99% in the 2022 crypto crash as bitcoin miners; few customers each; first to fall if AI spending slows; no dividends.

### AI Grid & Copper
- **For:** a shortage that takes years to fix (Morgan Stanley: 38 GW US power shortfall 2026–28; new copper mines take 10–15 years); demand is not only AI; steadiest record (Quanta up every calendar year since 2021); 55% of the pie is two diversified ETFs.
- **Against:** less upside; every holding within 21% of its five-year high at creation; copper miners follow the global economy; FGRD already holds Quanta and nVent (deliberate overlap); Prysmian is held as a thinner-trading ADR.

### The plan as a whole
- **For:** three different points in the supply chain that should behave differently; nearly half the money in the steadier pie.
- **Against:** still one theme — all three depend on big-tech AI spending; most holdings peaked May–June 2026 and had only partly pulled back; 13 of 15 holdings are USD-priced; the whole plan yields only ~0.2% a year.

## Operating rules

- **Fund in tranches** (three, or timed off QSR / Trend Reclaim signals) rather than one lump sum — Micron in particular was near its high.
- **T212 INV: rebalance with new cash, not auto-rebalance.** Auto-rebalancing sells slices, and each sale is a CGT disposal. The ISA pies have no such problem.
- **T212 INV: the two accumulating ETFs** (FGRD, COPG) still generate taxable excess reportable income each year.
- **Early-warning gauge:** if Memory + Neocloud underperform Grid & Copper over a rolling quarter, the market is pricing in a capex slowdown.
- **Changing weights:** edit `PIES` in `src/scripts/t212CreateAiPies.ts`, update this doc, and adjust the pies in the T212 app. The script only creates — it refuses to make a second pie with an existing name and cannot edit one.

## Snapshot at creation (total return, local currency, to 2026-10-01)

| Holding | 1 year | 5 years | Below 5-year high |
|---|---|---|---|
| SK Hynix (Korean share; the ADR only listed July 2026) | +366% | +1,838% | −37% |
| Micron | +503% | +1,483% | −10% |
| Seagate | +270% | +1,220% | −13% |
| Western Digital | +255% | +990% | −38% |
| Nebius | +101% | +1,061% since Oct 2024 | −19% |
| IREN | −14% | +66% since Nov 2021 | −47% |
| TeraWulf | +30% | −38% (2021 base is the IKONICS shell) | −59% |
| Hut 8 | +136% | +106% | −35% |
| CoreWeave | −35% | +121% since Mar 2025 | −52% |
| Smart Grid ETF (FGRD) | +22% | +57% since Apr 2022 | −8% |
| Copper Miners ETF (COPG) | +49% | +98% since Nov 2021 | −10% |
| Quanta Services | +58% | +487% | −16% |
| Prysmian | +48% | +334% | −21% |
| Southern Copper | +72% | +363% | −9% |
| nVent | +67% | +449% | −10% |

Source: Yahoo Finance adjusted closes. A point-in-time record of where things stood when the pies were created — not maintained.

## Re-running the creator

```
pnpm tsx src/scripts/t212CreateAiPies.ts --prefix=T212          # T212 INV, dry
pnpm tsx src/scripts/t212CreateAiPies.ts --account=isa          # T212 ISA, dry
```

Dry by default; `--live` creates. See the script header for flags and its verification status.